Fourth poll likely as Netanyahu, Gantz may not secure win in upcoming contest

JERUSALEM－As Israel heads to an unprecedented third election within a year on March 2, polls indicate that the prospect of a fourth election in a few months seems increasingly realistic.

The two main opponents are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud party, and Benny Gantz, who heads the centrist Blue and White party.

Netanyahu is facing charges of corruption, fraud and breach of trust, but has denied any wrongdoing. His trial is scheduled to begin two weeks after the election. Gantz remains steadfast in his refusal to sit in a coalition with an indicted leader.

Polls are showing no major change in the breakdown of support for the two blocs, and it looks like neither side will be able to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government. The 120-seat Israeli parliament, or Knesset, appears fragmented beyond repair.

"It's difficult for me to see any real chance for a surprise of substantive change in the large picture. ... Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is another election," said Assaf Shapira, a researcher at the Israeli Democracy Institute.

Gantz has also said that he will not form a government with the country's Arab parties. With the two large parties currently tied, neither is capable of garnering a majority and the path to a fourth election seems clear.

Although there was an attempt to replace Netanyahu within the party ahead of these elections, he won the internal vote in the Likud.

His supporters believe that Netanyahu is innocent and since Israeli law does not bar him from remaining in power, they think that he has the right to do so.

A new law?

However, his opponents believe that his morals are crooked and he is holding on to his seat only to improve his legal position. If Netanyahu leads the next government, he could promote a law that exempts a sitting prime minister from being prosecuted during his term.

"I do think this is Netanyahu's last election but since he is probably the most experienced politician in Israel's history, ... one can never count him out," said Jonathan Rynhold, a professor of the Bar Ilan University.

"If there is even one chink of light, which gives him some kind of opportunity, he will take advantage of it."

Israel has been under an interim government for over a year. There is no updated budget and long-term projects are at a standstill. While most Israelis are not yet feeling the impact of the political impasse, the longer it persists, the more effects the country will suffer.

"This is an acute crisis of the Israeli political system and ... maybe the most acute crisis in the history of the country," Shapira said.

The looming and realistic threat of a fourth election may be enough to motivate politicians to budge from their steadfast positions and compromise in order to form a government.

This depends largely on the Israeli kingmaker in the political arena, Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the right-wing Israel Our Home party.

Lieberman was once a member of the right-wing bloc and made a surprise appearance in the last two elections, saying that he refuses to sit with Orthodox Jewish parties who are in a solid pact with Netanyahu.

A few days ago, Lieberman said Netanyahu "could no longer lead".Polling shows that neither Gantz nor Netanyahu can gain a majority without Lieberman.

While the main issue of the current campaign remains Netanyahu's capability to continue governing, it is voter turnout that will have a critical impact on the results.

Still, there is a concern that Israelis are tired of heading to the polls and might express their dismay by simply not showing up. In a race which is so tight, every vote counts.

"The public really doesn't want a fourth election and the politicians are aware of that and they do not want to be blamed for it," Rynhold said.

Xinhua