France's foreign trade deficit is expected to reach 156 billion euros ($151 billion) in 2022, almost double that of 2021, going by the country's fiscal budget bill for 2023, meaning the continued foreign trade slump is a stumbling block on its road to economic recovery.

Although the foreign trade deficit has been around for a long time, it has particularly worsened in the past year. Amid the overall downturn in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, France's economy recorded a 52-year high of 7 percent growth in 2021. However, the shining economic performance was overshadowed by that year's foreign trade deficit of 84.7 billion euros.

In August 2022, the French government announced that the country's foreign trade deficit reached 71 billion euros in the first half of the year, up more than 20 billion euros year-on-year. The 2023 fiscal budget bill not only says that France's foreign trade deficit will reach 156 billion euros in 2022, but also predicts that the deficit will reach 154 billion euros in 2023.

The sharp rise in energy prices is driving the sudden surge in France's foreign trade deficit. Due to a 68 percent rise in Brent crude oil prices, energy bills rose from 25.2 billion euros in 2020 to 43.1 billion euros in 2021. According to the French finance ministry, the price of the country's imported energy surged five-fold between the second quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2022, and mounting energy costs have contributed much to its deteriorating trade balance.

Higher energy prices and the resulting foreign trade imbalances are hitting not just economic data, but also industry and market confidence. A survey published by France's statistical authorities in September indicates that the country's business conditions further weakened in the month, and almost all sectors except construction showed concerns about deteriorating market prospects. French businesses are even gloomier about the economic outlook, with some predicting that one in 10 medium-sized enterprises will cease production.

The impact of rising energy prices since the start of the Ukraine crisis has further aggravated the imbalance in France's foreign trade. Given that the rise in energy prices, triggered by external factors such as geopolitics, cannot be solved by France alone, there is little doubt that this conundrum will accompany President Emmanuel Macron through his second five-year term.