Until recently, China's relationship with the European Union was generally friendly and beneficial for both sides. But Beijing has every reason to worry about how the EU leaders will recalibrate the bloc's China policy at their summit on Thursday and Friday, given that the United States is relentlessly pursuing de facto economic decoupling with China and the EU leaders have cosied up to the US partly as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The EU defines China as a partner, economic competitor, and systemic rival. But, as EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell indicated on Monday, the bloc is increasingly preoccupied with the competition part. Seeing China as promoting an "alternative vision of the world order" which is deemed to be "authoritarian", a newly released EU foreign policy advisory for member countries demands they diversify supply chains away from and reduce their dependence on China.

Responding to a question regarding a tougher approach from the EU toward China, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman stressed that China considers the EU to be a partner rather than a rival, pointing out that bilateral "cooperation far outweighs competition". Quoting Borrell as saying that Chinese goods have done much better and much more to contain inflation than all the Central Banks together, the spokesman urged the EU to view China-EU cooperation in an objective manner".

But it was exactly the European External Action Service, which Borrell leads, that drafted the paper suggesting a shift to what it calls "realistic and robust engagement". The "realistic" engagement the EEAS advocates bears considerable resemblance to the German rhetoric about "no more naivety" in dealing with China. As a result of escalating suspicions, the heads of Germany's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies both voiced opposition to the proposed investment in Hamburg Port by Chinese shipping giant COSCO, at a parliamentary hearing on Monday. With the former warning that China may take advantage of its stakes in critical German infrastructure to exert political influence, and the latter claiming Chinese stakes may open the door to sabotage and the influencing of public opinion.

In Germany, the focus of debate seems to no longer be whether to reduce dependence on China, but how. Thomas Haldenwang, head of the German domestic intelligence service, quoted "foreign partners" as saying, "Russia is the storm, China is climate change".

China-EU relations face a paradigm change, and Beijing's urgings that the EU work with China to advance common interests and maintain the stability of global industry and supply chains may fall on deaf ears given the EU's subordinate role in its ties with the US. That serves neither side's interest.