Relations will be maintained no matter who leads next government, experts say

The long-term friendship between China and Thailand and their well-maintained strategic partnership will be maintained no matter who is to lead the next government of Thailand after the major general election, said Thai experts.

The opposition parties secured majority seats in the lower house of parliament with the Move Forward Party, or MFP, with 151 seats and Pheu Thai with 141 seats in the Thai general election on May 14. The winning was labeled by media as "cutting the edge" as MFP, the young and new party, stormed the Thai electoral arena.

"The winning is a start of a new chapter for Thailand, which may have the third way out from the monopoly of the traditional power," said Suthiphand Chirathivat, emeritus professor of economics and executive director of the ASEAN Studies Center at Chulalongkorn University.

However, recent remarks from MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat on his party's foreign policy triggered speculation on a possible turning of the country's diplomatic attitude toward China, as he said the party's foreign policy would be based on a "rule-based world order" with less focus on "bamboo diplomacy".

"I don't think that reveals any negative attitude, because the bamboo is a symbolic item of 'flexibility', which is the nature of diplomatic policy implementation in line with the superpowers that played a role at that time," said Suthiphand.

Given the long friendship between the two countries and their deep connection covering a wide range of areas, including trade, education and person-to-person communication, he said the new government and its leader will not be likely to lead a crucial change in current Sino-Thai relations.

"What he really meant is that there will be no longer 'silence' on some diplomatic issues under the leadership of MFP," he said. "Thailand plays an important role among ASEAN members and it also serves as a bridge connecting China and other ASEAN states."

His point is echoed by Peerasit Kamnuansilpa, dean of College of Local Administration at Khon Kaen University, who believes that Thailand will not make any changes in its foreign policy toward China.

"Thailand is very careful about its relations with China, no matter who becomes the next prime minister," he said. "The Cold War period is long over. There is no longer the fear of a takeover by a major power and Thailand will build its relationships with any country based on its state interests."

In late May, MFP and its seven allies signed a memorandum of understanding, agreeing to the policies of the government they plan to form together.

Geographical advantage

"In terms of several major areas, there's great potential for cooperation between Thailand and China as the two countries enjoy geographic advantages and a historically long friendship," said Chang Cheng, a scholar from Thailand's Siam Think Tank. Particularly with its great experiences in innovative technology, agriculture, and green development, he said China will be a good partner for Thailand.

The election of the Thai prime minister will be on schedule in two months. The MFP still has another difficult task ahead of forming a coalition government, which is reflected in its recent tussle with Pheu Thai over who should secure the House Speaker's post.

The MFP has many draft laws in store which need to be pushed through for parliamentary debate with the help of the House Speaker. Having a speaker who is a member of the MFP would ensure this happens, according to the party. However, critics say it lacks experienced personnel for the job and should make way for its coalition partner, as it can hardly hope to take office without Pheu Thai's help.

Peerasit said Pita will still face tough challenges as some of the existing powers see him as too radical. "But the positive thing is Pita has made it clear which direction and what achievements the public can expect from his party and from himself," he added.

However, Pita himself was recently trapped in the shareholding violation complaints, calling into question his status as an MP and as the future prime minister as he is reported to hold 42,000 shares in iTV, an independent broadcaster founded in the 1990s.

According to Thai election law, a candidate is constitutionally barred from contesting an election if he or she owns a stake in a media company. The Election Commission has started a probe into the complaints and the result is yet to be released.

Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, program director for politics and development strategy at the National Institute of Development Administration, said if the MFP fails to form a coalition government, the country will be rocked by divisions and conflict.