Government's decision will push for more stability in region, experts say

The Iraqi government's decision to end the presence of US-led troops on its soil is a push for more stability, say analysts.

It has widely been reported that the Iraqi government has started the process of removing the US-led international military coalition, citing the office of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani.

Al-Sudani's statement came on Friday, a day after a US strike killed a militia leader in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, drawing anger among Iran-aligned groups that have demanded the end of foreign forces' presence in Iraq.

According to a report by the US Department of Defense on Thursday, US forces in Iraq conducted a "self-defense strike", which "killed Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al-Jawari", citing him as a leader of the Harakat al-Nujaba "terrorist group".Further, it said Al-Jawari, also known as Abu Taqwa, "was actively involved in planning and carrying out attacks against American personnel".

Abu Taqwa, along with another member of Harakat al-Nujaba, were both killed in a strike that took place around noon, on Thursday, in Iraq, said Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder during a briefing on Thursday.

A statement released by the Iraqi prime minister's media office's verified Facebook page on Thursday called the strike a "blatant aggression and violation of Iraq's sovereignty and security", as a drone "carried out an act no different from terrorist activities" by targeting one of the security headquarters in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, which resulted in casualties "and is unequivocally condemned".

"The Iraqi Armed Forces hold the Global Coalition Forces responsible for this unwarranted attack on an Iraqi security entity that is operating within the powers authorized by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. This action undermines the previously established understandings between the Iraqi Armed Forces and the Global Coalition Forces," Yehia Rasool, spokesperson for the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, said in the statement.

"We view this action as a dangerous escalation and assault on Iraq, diverging from the spirit and the text of the mandate and the mission for which the Global Coalition was established in Iraq," he added.

Mhd Nor Shakr, an international relations scholar at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim Universitesi, noted that the main goal of the presence of the forces, estimated at 2,500, was to fight the Islamic State, which appeared in 2014.

"After the defeat of the IS, the American presence became a burden on Iraq, and on the government," Shakr told China Daily.

The US Department of Defense noted that currently it has a military presence in Iraq as part of Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, or known as the CJTFOIR mission, which was "to advise, assist and enable partnered forces in the defeat of ISIS within designated areas of Iraq and Syria".

Violation of sovereignty

Following the assassination of a second-line leader in the Al-Nujaba militia, one of the armed factions under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, the assassination was carried out by US forces with a drone. Accordingly, the Iraqi government asked Washington to withdraw its forces as Iraq considered the killing a violation of the country's sovereignty, Shakr said.

Bilgay Duman, Iraq Studies coordinator at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Turkiye, told China Daily that al-Sudani seems to be strategically positioning himself to manage immediate challenges, lessen the pressure, and "buy time". This, he said, is particularly relevant in the context of the ongoing debates about the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, a topic that is "not new".

Duman said even under al-Sudani's predecessor, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the same issues were at the forefront during the "Strategic Dialogue" meetings with the US since July 2021 and they established the US-Iraq Higher Coordinating Committee in February 2023.

"These meetings may pick up pace soon, but a quick withdrawal of US troops seems unlikely," said Duman.

Moreover, he said, al-Sudani's government, which has been in power for a year, "has brought a certain degree of stability, something relatively new compared to previous periods".

At the same time, Duman adds, Iraq is trying to position itself as a "balancing force" in the Middle East. Yet, ongoing regional conflicts "are making this difficult, often spilling over into Iraqi territory", creating challenges for al-Sudani's administration, he said.