US experts weighed in on China's annual Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting the implications of a robust Chinese economy for its global influence. They emphasized the importance of US-China cooperation in addressing global challenges, calling for rebuilding trust and multilevel constructive dialogue between the two nations.

In his speech at the conference held in Beijing earlier this month, President Xi Jinping summarized the economic work in 2024, analyzed the current economic situation, and arranged the economic work for 2025.

The policymakers at the conference noted the heightened negative factors from the outside environment and challenges facing the economy, and reaffirmed the need to forge ahead with high-quality development, comprehensively deepen reform, expand high-level opening-up, and develop a modern industrial system.

"Both the US and China will ultimately be better off if they can reduce the potential for conflict and can engage one another in a much more constructive way," Denis Simon, a nonresident fellow at the Quincy Institute and senior lecturer in the Asian Pacific Studies Institute at the Duke University, told China Daily.

Simon said a healthy economy is crucial not only for China's domestic stability but also for its global standing. "China's role in the world is strengthened by having a strong, vibrant economy and also at the same time by having a dynamic innovation system," he said, mentioning China's shift to a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy next year, signaled by the tone-setting conference.

"The changes will spur the Chinese economy, and they should dampen the negative commentary in the Western press," said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Simon hoped China would take measures to boost the economy and get "tangible results" in the next six to 12 months.

He emphasized the potential for a mutually beneficial relationship between the US and China. "The narrative that China is trying to displace the US as a global leader is simply not supported by facts," Simon said.

"My hope is that these remarks (from the annual Central Economic Work Conference) portend a welcome mat for investment by Western firms," Hufbauer said.

However, building a cooperative relationship requires overcoming existing hurdles. Paul Triolo, the senior vice-president at Albright Stonebridge Group, stressed the need to rebuild trust and broaden engagement beyond the presidential level.

"The challenge for the new (US) administration is to reverse the downward spiral in trust and create space for meaningful dialogue," he told China Daily.

Triolo mentioned the complexities within the US political landscape; while some advocate a confrontational approach toward China, others favor greater engagement, suggesting more cabinet-level and working-level dialogues.

Triolo said the incoming administration of Donald Trump will likely adopt a more balanced approach toward China policy, with Wall Street and Silicon Valley voices gaining more influence.

"Trump likes to have Wall Street people around him because he is very concerned about the business community and about the stock market," he said, pointing out that President-elect Trump is very "transactional" and would always want "a deal".

Positive steps

Triolo said, though, that the US-China relationship cannot be solely focused on narrow areas of agreement. "China wants to see a broader relationship," he said, adding they should be talking about big issues, including global issues, climate change and other things where collaboration could exist.

The recent dialogue between US and Chinese officials, such as the US-China Economic Working Group meeting on Dec 16 and the US-China Financial Working Group meeting on Dec 15-16, could be seen as positive steps toward broader engagement and cooperation. Triolo also highlighted the potential for collaboration between the two major powers on global issues such as climate change and AI safety. "The US and China are key drivers of the global economy," he said, "and they have a shared responsibility to work together on these big issues".

Triolo said the US export controls on technology have created a "difficult problem" even though Chinese companies would prefer to "remain very much engaged" with the global economy.

Triolo said the challenge early in the Trump administration regarding US-China relations would be "if there were some steps toward reversing that downward spiral in trust".

He also emphasized the need for a more comprehensive and nuanced China policy from the Trump administration.

yifanxu@chinadailyusa.com

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