The time has come to place orders for toys for the 2025 holiday season. Chinese toy makers are enhancing their offerings by producing higher-value and more innovative toys to remain competitive and expanding into international markets, especially amid ongoing trade tensions, according to industry leaders.

Meanwhile, US retailers and families are expected to face increased costs and prices due to the higher tariffs imposed by the US government.

"If these tariff policies remain unchanged, the additional costs — potentially doubling the arrival price of toys — will ultimately be passed on to US consumers." said Liu Zhenlie, director of the Shenzhen Toys Industry Association and chairman of toy manufacturer Beiens.

According to Liu, the cost of reaching US retailers and distributors is expected to see a 100 percent increase.

"The US Toy Association is strongly opposing the tariffs and is actively engaging in negotiations," said Liu. The US association is currently urging the US government to grant immediate relief from tariffs on toys imported from China to ensure that toys are available on retail shelves in time for the holiday season.

Kathrin Belliveau, chief policy officer at the US Toy Association, said, "We hope to collaborate to protect children and keep learning and play tariff-free."

Recently, the US Toy Association conducted a survey to assess the potential business impact of the newly imposed 145 percent tariffs on toy imports from China.

With responses from over 400 member companies, the findings indicate that nearly half of small and medium-sized enterprises fear they may soon go out of business due to the current US tariff policy.

Mattel, the toy manufacturing giant and maker of Barbie, plans to raise prices on US toys due to tariffs, it said earlier this week in its earnings report.

Meanwhile, the toy manufacturing industry in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, is feeling the squeeze as the impact has been immediate and severe. "Roughly half of Shenzhen's toy orders come from the US and exports have virtually ground to a halt," Liu said.

"From April to now, 90 percent of finished products are stuck in factories. Only major clients like Walmart, Target, and Amazon, who are willing to absorb the cost, are still taking deliveries."

The latest tariffs threaten to reshape the global toy supply chain. Shenzhen, long a hub for high-quality toy production, is seeing orders gradually shift to Southeast Asia.

Liu said around 10 percent of companies with stable order volumes have already established operations in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

"Vietnamese factory rents are now comparable to Shenzhen — $3.5 to $5 per square meter — yet companies are still making the move," Liu said.

Despite the shift, many firms are maintaining operations in domestic hubs such as Dongguan, Heyuan, and Huizhou in Guangdong province due to the strength of the integrated local supply chains.

As the trade tension escalates, Liu said the manufacturing mindset in China will double down on strategic, innovation-led production in a changing global landscape.

"AI toys, drones, robots — these categories rely on an integrated supply chain that only exists in China. High-value products with strong technical barriers will continue to be made here."

To weather the storm, Chinese toy makers are also eyeing new markets.

"We're increasing our focus on Southeast Asia and Europe. It's a long-term play, but it's essential," Liu said. "Domestically, the competition will become more intense. We need to pivot and adapt."

For toy makers with their own intellectual property and branded products, the impact of tariffs has been minimal so far.

Chen Feng, the secretary-general of the Chenghai Toy Association in Shantou, Guangdong province — a region known as the capital of innovative toys — said that less than 10 percent of the toys produced in the area are exported to the US.

"Our current focus is on developing our own IPs and adopting AI-powered automation to compete globally," he said. "However, for US consumers, the situation is different; they will face higher prices."