China's upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30) will be crucial for shifting the economy toward domestic consumption and higher-level institutional opening-up, according to experts at a forum in Haikou, Hainan province, over the weekend.

The 91st International Forum on China Reform, held from Saturday to Sunday, drew more than 400 participants from around the world. The discussions come ahead of the Hainan Free Trade Port launching island-wide special customs operations on Dec 18, a key step in China's opening-up policy.

Hainan Governor Liu Xiaoming called the 15th Five-Year Plan pivotal for the province. He described it as a critical period "to deepen reform and opening-up and achieve high-quality development from the new starting point of island-wide special customs operations".

Forum speakers outlined key priorities, emphasizing a need to rebalance the economy.

Chi Fulin, president of the China Institute for Reform and Development, called for structural reforms and people-centered urbanization. "The key is to use comprehensive reform to break the structural contradiction between investment and consumption as soon as possible," Chi said. He stressed that a domestic demand- and consumption-led model is the strategic foundation for China's modernization.

Steven Alan Barnett, the International Monetary Fund's former senior resident representative in China, agreed. "China's growth also needs to be consumption-led, so that means consumption growth exceeding GDP growth," he said, adding that innovation and better resource allocation remain crucial for boosting productivity.

Le Yucheng, China's former vice-minister of foreign affairs, highlighted a strategic pivot toward "institutional opening-up," with Hainan's special customs operations serving as a precursor. He called the Hainan move the "opening gong" for institutional opening-up during the coming 15th Five-Year Plan period. "A whole set of institutional projects and major moves on institutional opening will follow, forming a new matrix," he said.

Le explained that after more than 40 years of practice, China's opening-up has evolved from the flow of goods and factors to institutional opening-up involving rules, regulations, management and standards. The current focus is on reforming institutions to provide systemic dividends for high-quality development.

The year-end launch of special customs operations in Hainan will be the first milestone for the future plan. This move will, for the first time, test high-standard trade rules across an entire provincial-level region. The special customs operations do not mean sealing off the island, but sealing out the old system, creating a new customs supervision model. This establishes a system of institutional opening aligned with the highest global standards, setting an example for the nation's new phase of high-level opening-up. In this sense, Hainan will become a national demonstration zone for institutional opening-up.

Harley Seyedin, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in South China, underscored the universal need for openness. "In a highly interconnected world, opening-up is the cornerstone of mutual benefit and a further driver of high-quality development," he said.