On December 27, 2024, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a safeguard investigation into beef imports following a petition by the China Animal Agriculture Association and nine provincial animal agriculture associations.

The investigation covers fresh, chilled, and frozen beef products classified under specific harmonized tariff schedule codes, valued at $13.7 billion in 2024.

China's domestic beef industry is coming under growing strain, prompting breeders, industry groups and analysts to call on policymakers to introduce safeguard measures as soon as possible to steady market expectations and support local producers.

Liu Qiangde, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing-based association, said that as China's beef breeding industry has been making loss for an extended period, many breeders slaughter the breeding cattle to cut costs. The nation's stock of breeding cattle declined by about 3 percent in 2024, a development that threatens future production capacity rather than only short-term output.

Despite the ongoing safeguard investigation into imported beef, volumes continued to rise between January and October 2025, with inventories reaching about 1 million metric tons, according to the association.

He said the entire supply chain — from feed and animal health products to downstream processing — is being squeezed, underscoring the need for safeguard measures.

The association is urging policymakers to introduce safeguards such as import quotas by the end of 2025 and to put them into effect without delay, Liu added.

According to the World Trade Organization, member economies may temporarily restrict imports under the Agreement on Safeguards when a surge in imports causes — or threatens to cause — serious injury to a domestic industry.

On August 6, 2025, the ministry extended the deadline for the investigation to November 26, and on November 25 — citing the complexity of the case — it pushed the deadline back again to January 26, 2026.

Industry analysts also warn that the pressures go beyond short-term market fluctuations and are now weighing on the sector's long-term production base, raising concerns about the sustainability of domestic supply.

Zhu Zengyong, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing, said breeding cattle form the backbone of the sector. If their productivity falls, he warned, the entire beef industry could contract significantly.

Unlike pigs or poultry, cattle require far longer cycles and higher upfront investment, Zhu said.

A cow typically does not begin breeding until around 18 months of age. Gestation lasts about 10 months, followed by a further two-year rearing period. Any fall in breeding efficiency could therefore translate into at least four years of reduced domestic capacity and tighter supply.

China's beef sector also carries a significant social role. It supports tens of millions of rural households across the southwest, northwest and northeast regions, Zhu noted.

"Cattle breeding has been an important pillar of rural revitalization and poverty alleviation," he said, warning that persistent losses in the absence of safeguards or alternative income channels could push vulnerable families back into poverty — underscoring the industry's importance to broader rural development.