Anniversaries are supposed to be a time for reflection. But when the secessionist-minded leader of China’s Taiwan region, Lai Ching-te, addressed a forum marking the 30th anniversary of the island holding a “direct election” to elect a regional leader, reflection didn’t exactly seem to be on top of his mind. He delivered what sounded more like a hard-sell of “Taiwan independence”, a flimsily constructed product that has long proved to be combustible.

In what was a neat rhetorical trick, Lai falsely declared that the advent of “direct elections” proved Taiwan was already a so-called “sovereign and independent country”. But as Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, pointed out, regional elections may choose local leaders, but they cannot rewrite geography, history or international law. The fact is both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China, and Taiwan is part of China.

As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently told the media, Taiwan’s status was settled decades ago through documents such as the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758. The island’s return to China after World War II was not a subplot — it was the conclusion.

Still, Lai appears determined to audition for the role of geopolitical daredevil.

What makes Lai’s speech particularly revealing is that he is simultaneously pushing for a proposed special military budget of about NT$1.25 trillion ($40 billion) over eight years, along with a massive arms purchase from the United States.

The pitch sounds simple enough — “security” requires spending. But opposition parties in Taiwan’s regional “legislature” have repeatedly blocked the proposal, questioning whether they are being asked to sign what amounts to a blank check for catastrophe.

At the same time, the Lai authorities have been deepening “economic engagement” with Washington that risks hollowing out Taiwan’s industrial base. A recent trade arrangement with the US includes massive investment commitments by Taiwan companies in US semiconductor and technology industries. In exchange, the island gets certain tariff “concessions”.

The deal effectively pressures Taiwan companies to move core industrial capacity to the US, potentially draining the island of its economic lifeblood. The arrangement looks less like a partnership, more like a clearance sale.

In doing so, Lai is pushing the island to become a pawn for the US military-industrial complex.

And here lies the irony of Lai’s soaring rhetoric about “sovereignty”. A regional leader who insists he is defending Taiwan’s “autonomy” is simultaneously tying the island more tightly to US strategic priorities.

That’s not exactly the brochure voters are being presented with.

Lai’s speech was carefully packaged to stir confrontation across the Taiwan Strait and frame cross-Strait relations as a battle between two “systems” — a narrative designed to inflame public sentiment rather than stabilize the region.

The danger of that narrative should not be underestimated at a time when the world has already seen multiple geopolitical flash points ignite. One might imagine a prudent regional leader drawing lessons from these crises about the costs of miscalculation.

Instead, Lai seems blindly heedless.

The Taiwan question is China’s internal affair and core interest that cannot be compromised. The pursuit of separatism by secessionists on the island is the root cause of tensions across the Strait.

History tends to be unkind to politicians who mistake theatrical defiance for strategic wisdom. If Lai continues down the path he has chosen, the consequences could reach far beyond his rhetorical tricks.

Anniversaries are supposed to be a reminder of the past, but they are also signposts to future. Lai should recognize in which direction they point — inevitable reunification of the Taiwan island with the motherland.