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Nation's M2 maintains rapid growth

By Hu Yuanyuan (China Daily)
Updated: 2006-08-12 09:16

Growth in China's money supply maintained a rapid pace in July due to the continuing jump in loans and the trade surplus, despite the central bank's tightening measures to curb fast-growing lending.

The growth of the broad money supply, or M2, which covers cash in circulation and all deposits, climbed 18.4 per cent year-on-year to 32.4 trillion yuan (US$4 trillion) by the end of July, according to a statement from the People's Bank of China on Friday.

The growth rate was almost the same as that of last month. But it was up 2.1 percentage points compared with the same period of last year.

"The continuing hike of the M2 may be triggered by the banks' rush to give out loans before August 15 when their deposit reserve ratio will jump by 0.5 of a percentage point," said Wang Yuanhong, a senior economist with the State Information Centre.

The central bank has taken a package of measures to mop up excess liquidity in the market, including twice raising commercial banks' required reserve ratios by half a percentage point within five weeks and increasing the one-year benchmark lending rate by 27 basis points to 5.85 per cent in April.

"However, given the July statistics, these measures didn't work as well as expected," said Wang, adding the country's target for M2 growth this year is 16 per cent.
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The M1, an indicator covering cash in circulation and current account deposits, rose by 15.3 per cent year-on-year to 11.27 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) by the end of July, according to the central bank. The growth rate is 1.4 percentage points higher than that of last month and up 4.3 per cent from a year ago.

The outstanding renminbi loans in all financial institutions stood at 22.94 trillion yuan (US$2.87 trillion) at the end of July, an increase of 15.4 per cent year-on-year. The rate is 1.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of June.

According to Li Yongsen, an economist at Renmin University of China, the ever-increasing foreign exchange reserve is a major factor behind the dynamic growth of the money supply.

China's foreign exchange reserve, driven by the mounting foreign trade surplus and the inflow of foreign direct investment, had surged to a record US$941.1 billion by the end of June, according to statistics from the central bank.

The trade surplus widened to US$14.6 billion in July, the highest on record, the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday.

"It is very hard to say that the central bank will further increase the lending interest rate soon since the consumer price index, a key indicator for inflation, rose only 1 per cent year-on-year in July," Wang said.

The exchange rate of the yuan is becoming more flexible, said the central bank. The yuan has gained an accumulated 3.8 per cent since the government revalued it and discarded its peg on the greenback on July 21 last year.