Irrational exuberance? Or madness?
By Ravi S. Narasimhan (China Daily)Updated: 2007-05-30 09:42
Alan Greenspan's oft-quoted warning of "irrational
exuberance" did not prick the Internet stock bubble in 1996 - it merrily
continued to inflate until the crash at the turn of the century.
Perhaps it is no surprise that his warning about a bubble in China's stock market has been met with equal - if not more - irrational exuberance.
The former Fed chief said recently that the bull run on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange s was "clearly unsustainable" and there would be a "dramatic contraction at some point".
Greenspan was as blunt as could be. Clarity wasn't his strong suit, as legislators at US Congressional heard in one testimony: "I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said."
Still, this was a man who could move the global markets with one (albeit) long, convoluted sentence.
But China's investors are unmoved. And that extends to cautionary advice closer to home.
Li Ka-shing, the Hong Kong tycoon who is Asia's richest person, said recently that China's stock valuations "must be a bubble" and that prices were likely to decline.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China's central bank, warned earlier this month that a bubble may be building in the share market.
But who's listening?
Tales are legion of retirees and laid-off workers emptying their bank accounts to invest in stocks, of people pawning whatever they can or borrowing from friends and family, of office employees in Shanghai given an hour off during work to trade, even foreign students asking classmates to have a punt for them.
How then to explain this?
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"The Chinese market is something Greenspan does not know very well," an analyst, who perhaps should know better, was quoted as saying.
Another point is that investors see a foreign
conspiracy.
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