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China agrees to pay triple for potash fertilizer

(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-04-17 09:57

"There is nothing near term for solace for buyers," said another analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "You've got a high fertilizer price environment, period. We're talking at least a couple of years."

Chinese importers normally negotiate a hefty discount to other large buyers such as India and Brazil because of their volume purchases.

But this year, China lost some of its pricing leverage as Indian importers, who normally price potash contracts after China, jumped ahead in the queue to book supplies at a delivered price of $625 a ton.

"This would be the first time in memory that China has paid a higher price than that paid by Indian buyers," wrote JP Morgan analyst David Silver.

Since India's move, spot market prices have climbed to $750, and Uralkali's chief executive has said prices could climb even higher by the third quarter.

Canadian potash producers are not certain whether China will have enough supplies to last through 2008, said Richard Downey, a spokesman for Agrium.

"We don't have a whole lot more to supply them anyway," Downey said in an interview.

Major producers and junior players are assessing potash deposits, but new mines cost more than $2.5 billion and take at least five years to develop, according to industry data.

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