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Property shares lift market gloom

By Zhou Yan (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-03-03 08:06

After drastic corrections over the past two weeks, the Shanghai Composite Index recovered yesterday to close 0.5 percent higher, led by property shares.

According to market men, a mixed trend would continue to prevail in the market as investors are awaiting the deliberations of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) later this week.

The benchmark index, which had slid 7.9 percent last week, rose 10.6 points to end at 2,093.45. The smaller Shenzhen Component Index surged 2.03 percent, or 154.49 points, to 7,762.72.

The recent market upheaval has also cast its shadow on trading volumes, which have been falling. The combined turnover on the two bourses fell to 111.3 billion yuan, down 24.9 percent from Friday.

Analysts, however, feel that though investors are watching the NPC and CPPCC sessions closely, they do not expect much cheer from them.

"Historically, the market performed quite well during the two sessions. In the past 13 years, we have seen stock advances outnumbering losses by 10 times to three," said Wu Feng, analyst, TX Investment Consulting.

Zhong Hua, analyst, Changjiang Securities, said the meetings may result in more fiscal stimulus measures for the 10 key industries.

"Shares in agriculture and healthcare sectors will appear more attractive during the deliberations," he said.

"We expect the sessions to discuss the civil livelihood division more. The public facility-related industries like transportation could attract more attention," said Cao Huining, professor, Cheung Kong Graduate School.

However, Frank FX Gong, JP Morgan's China chief economist, advised financial markets "not to expect too much from the NPC, which will focus on medium to long-term issues, rather than detailed, actionable measures."

"We do expect the NPC to discuss some macro policies that have near-term and medium term implications. However, the resulting policy statement will likely be general," he said.

Cao said given the fast deteriorating global environment, the two-week meetings' positive impact on the mainland market is limited.

"We forecast the market will hover around 2,100 points during the NPC period," Wu said.

Fifty-six stocks out of the total 62 in the property sector rallied yesterday, led by Poly Real Estate and China Merchants Property Development with 5.68 percent and 4.83 percent gains.

China Merchants Bank surged 2.45 percent to 14.62 yuan after unlocking 4.799 billion non-tradable shares yesterday.