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Economist says China to see V-shaped recovery

By Hu Yuanyuan (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-04-03 13:55

China's economy will see a V-shaped recovery this year, with the GDP growing as much as 10 percent in the first quarter of next year, said Sun Mingchun, economist with Nomura International.

Related readings:  China to be first to 'escape crisis'  ADB pegs China GDP growth at 7%  Fixed-asset investment grows 26.5% y-o-y in Jan-Feb  New yuan lending drops in Feb, but remains over 1t yuan

"An investment boom led by the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package may push the growth to rebound to around 10 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009 and continue into the first quarter of next year," Sun said, adding that the worst time for China's economy was the fourth quarter of last year, when the economy grew only 6.8 percent.

Urban fixed-asset investment jumped 26.5 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, while vehicle sales climbed 25 percent in February.

"China's economy may expand by 7.5 percent between April and June and growth may accelerate in the following months," Sun said.

Banks' lending continued a robust growth momentum. According to a report from the China Securities Journal, new loans reached 1.3 trillion yuan in March, bringing new loans for the quarter to 4 trillion yuan, three times the amount for the same period last year.