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Eloquent figures

(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-08-10 07:49

First and foremost, let us be thankful. At the very least, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) convened a special briefing to explain itself. That the NBS bothered to respond to people's suspicions is in itself commendable. In a sense, this is no less important than the accuracy of their figures.

At the briefing last Thursday, NBS chief Ma Jiantang promised the bureau would patiently listen to people's questions, and provide answers. That is the only sensible way to improve credibility of the statistics authority.

Some local officials' tendency to manipulate statistical data has resulted in a degree of popular disbelief in government figures. Still, we are convinced that part of the average citizen's doubt about authenticity of official statistics has to do with the technical complexity of the work. To which the country's chief statistician has found a wonderful solution.

Yet the public's disbelief in the personal income growth figures for the first half of the year was not a result of misunderstanding, or ignorance.

In the NBS report, per capita disposable income for urban households in the first six months rose by 9.8 percent, and average wage of "employees of urban institutions" 12.9 percent year-on-year. Even the cash income of rural residents grew 8.1 percent. Which were far from what people have felt.

NBS specialists analyzed the technical factors that more or less distorted our perception of actual growth in incomes. But this is not about national or regional pictures, about which individual citizens have little personal experience. Everybody knows whether or not he or she was paid more, and, how much.

It turns out to be more a problem of statistical sampling than of misperception. The NBS has resorted to an obsolete sample to portray the national picture of individual incomes. There is no way it can reflect what the man on the street feels. And, the picture it presents cannot be complete.

Related readings:  NBS official refutes charges of unreliable GDP figure   NBS to add 10,000 CPI survey locations  China revises statistics law to curb data falsification  Statistical accuracy, reliability key to economic policy

The term "employees of urban institutions", for instance, does not cover workers in the private sector, the self-employed, and those in part-time or provisional jobs. These people constitute a large and increasing portion of the urban working population. Around 300 million people are now employed in urban areas. But only 130 million of them are covered by government statistics.

The NBS report proved unconvincing because it stuck to a sample that longer reflects the reality of the country's job market. No picture of the national job market is meaningful or complete without taking the robust private employers into account.

NBS sources disclosed that they are already working on including the private sector in official statistics.

We hope this will be done soon and that the impact on the accuracy and credibility of government statistics will be visible sooner rather than later.