Statistics

China's manufacturing at slowest for 17 months

By Huang Zhe, Chinmei Sung and Li Yanping in Taipei (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-08-02 09:38

Property prices

Growth dipped to a 10.3 percent annual pace in the second quarter from 11.9 percent in the first quarter and property-price gains have cooled from April's record. A moderation in growth "is a desirable result, which will lower expectations for further policy tightening", said Xing Ziqiang, a Beijing-based economist at China International Capital Corp.

Vale SA, the world's largest iron-ore producer, has a similar view, with Chief Financial Officer Guilherme Cavalcanti telling reporters on July 30 that the nation's expansion has moved to "a more sustainable pace".

Related readings:  PMI for manufacturing sectorfalls to 51.2% in July  Property bubbles still a risk for China, says S&P official  Wen: slowdown a result of 'active' regulation  Slowdown 'may add' uncertainty

China, the world's biggest exporter, has been buoyed this year by demand for shipments climbing to pre-crisis levels and even beyond.

"If exports hold up, China's slowdown should be moderate and not require a reversal of policy," Brian Jackson, an emerging markets strategist for Royal Bank of Canada, said. "But if weakness in the euro-area and the US does major damage to Chinese exports, Beijing will likely face pressure to deliver a renewed surge in investment spending."

UBS AG economist Wang Tao said late last month that economic growth could be cut by 2 percentage points in the second half of the year if the government shows "true resolve" in meeting its energy-efficiency target. The goal is in a five-year plan that has only months to run. Soured loans also have the potential to limit growth. Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.14 trillion) they've lent to finance local government infrastructure projects, a person with knowledge of data collected by the nation's regulator said last month.

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