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Forcing fast RMB rise will be lose-lose situation

By Wang Lijun and Zhou Shijian (China Daily )
Updated: 2007-06-05 10:13

The import of large amounts of cheap, good quality daily consumer goods satisfies the needs of the US market, benefits its consumers and eases US inflation. It is the necessary complement to the US industrial restructuring and economic development. The trade deficit is a trade act and should be analyzed from the perspective of the market needs.

It is well known that at the Guangzhou Import & Export Commodity Fair, the most active buyers are the US importers. Wal-Mart imports from China multibillion dollars worth of consumer goods. In China-US business transactions, China has taken its advantage of low cost labor, resources, transportation and management while the US advantage in high technology is strictly dampened.

For many years, the US has done more importing than exporting in its trade with China, causing the trade imbalance. Therefore, deregulating the control of technology export is the shortcut to reduce China's trade surplus with the US.

For more than half a century, US labor-intensive industry has mostly shifted overseas. Take the shoe industry for example. In 1976, in the US market 53 pairs of shoes per 100 pairs were domestically made. That figure dropped to 22 pairs in 1986; 11 pairs in 1996; and only only one and half pairs per 100 were domestically made in 2006.

Now, 98.5 percent of the shoes worn by Americans are imported. In 2005, the US imported 1.8 billion pairs of various kinds of shoes from China. The average American wore six pairs of shoes made in China.

Even if renminbi appreciation substantially reduces shoe imports from China, the US will have to import from other countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, since many Americans cannot afford the shoes made in the US.

The appreciation of the renminbi can only reduce the US imports from China. It cannot prevent US imports from other countries. As a result, it cannot fundamentally reduce the total US trade deficit. Result: the US will be hurting others without getting any benefits for itself.


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