Jim Rogers still confident on China's market
(Shanghai Daily)Updated: 2007-07-03 09:00
Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the global
commodities rally in 1999, said he's sold out of all emerging markets with the
exception of China because they're "over-exploited."
"I'm hoping when the
next big correction comes I'm smart enough to buy some of them back," Rogers,
chairman of New York-based Beeland Interests Inc, said in an interview in
Singapore yesterday. "They're all over-exploited, so I've sold out."
The
Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index has risen twice as
fast as a measure of developed countries this year, as investors bet sustained
global economic growth will bolster profits. Rogers said he remains bullish on
commodities, including agricultural products and metals, Bloomberg News
reported.
The emerging markets index has jumped 17 percent in 2007,
compared with the 8.2 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of developed
economies. Shares in developing countries have outperformed every year since
2001, with benchmarks in Brazil, China, India and Malaysia all touching records
this year.
"Valuations are not super-attractive as these markets have run
up quite a lot," said Christopher Wong, who helps manage US$25 billion at
Aberdeen Asset Management in Singapore. "If markets continue to go up like this,
we do expect a correction."
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The International Monetary Fund in April forecast that the world economy is expected to grow 4.9 percent this year, as expansion in developing nations helps to compensate for a slowdown in the United States.
China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, is likely to grow 10 percent this year, while India's economy may expand 8.4 percent, the IMF said.
"The only one I didn't sell was China," said Rogers. "I don't ever want to sell China, but if China doubles again this year, then it's a full-fledged bubble and I'll have to sell."
China's benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 4.2 percent last month, the first monthly decline since July 2006. Still, the index almost doubled in the first five months of this year, building on a 121-percent advance in 2006.
Those gains have helped make China the world's most expensive major stock market. The CSI 300 is valued at about 41 times earnings, about twice as much as the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is worth 18 times earnings, while Europe's Dow Jones 600 Index is valued at about 15 times.
Concerns that emerging markets are overvalued may be slowing investors' enthusiasm. Global emerging market funds drew US$696.4 million in the first half of 2007, according to estimates by Boston-based Emerging Portfolio Research Inc.
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