日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / Economy

No hard landing after slower growth

(Xinhua) Updated: 2012-04-25 15:44

BEIJING - Although some feared the possibility of a hard landing after China posted lower-than-predicted quarterly growth, the economy may rebound more quickly than expected as a result of robust inner growth dynamics, according to several global economists.

Dragged down by sagging exports and domestic tightening efforts intended to curb inflation, China's GDP growth hit an 11-quarter low of 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, well below expectations of 8.3 to 8.5 percent.

"I don't think China will have a hard landing. There is still sufficient robustness in the Chinese economy," said John Quelch, dean and vice president of the China Europe International Business School.

Heading for rebound

With the key growth drivers of trade and investment showing signs of regaining strength and consumption expanding after the softening of inflation, economists believe China's growth will rapidly pick up rather than suddenly fall.

"Growth will rebound in the second quarter. The chance for a hard landing is slim," said Tang Jianwei, an analyst at the Bank of Communications.

"The economy will keep a reasonable growth rate as long as the government properly handles its macroeconomic control measures," he said, forecasting growth of 8.6, 8.7 and 9 percent, respectively, for the next three quarters.

Tang said he expects export growth to recover in the second quarter, as export orders have increased amid an improved global economic outlook.

Pressure on the yuan to rise sharply has eased following the introduction of a wider trading band, which has helped to reduce exchange costs for exporters.

Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment will grow at a slightly faster pace on the back of rapid investment growth in central and western China, he said.

Tang said he doesn't expect investment in the property sector to decline sharply, a possibility many believed to be the biggest uncertainty clouding the future of the economy.

Government investment will also increase, particularly for infrastructure and environmental protection projects, Tang said.

Moreover, domestic consumption will expand steadily, boosted by government policies to spur demand, as well as higher household incomes and falling consumer prices, he added.

Official data showed that the incomes of both urban and rural dwellers grew faster than the economy in the first quarter due to government efforts to increase the minimum wage. The inflation rate eased to 3.8 percent during the period, down from 5.4 percent in 2011.

Jing Ulrich, managing director of JP Morgan Chase, said China's growth may have hit bottom in the first quarter and will tick higher in subsequent quarters.

Ulrich said she expects more monetary fine-tuning to buoy the economy, including two to three cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratios this year after two similar cuts over the past five months and a lending jump in March.

She said the economy will expand by 8.4 percent this year, higher than the 7.5-percent growth target set by the Chinese government and the 8.2 percent forecast by the International Monetary Fund.

Upbeat long-term outlook

Most economists projected China's growth to trump the government's 7-percent target for the next five years, as the country's domestic policies will support more sustainable growth.

"The principal advantage that China has is its huge domestic market," Quelch said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua on Saturday.

Despite rapid growth over the past few decades, China's per capita GDP is still far less than that of most developed economies, indicating great potential for consumption and infrastructure construction.

"I think across a whole range of services and product industries, there is enormous upside potential for growth in China," Quelch said.

"I think the degree to which the domestic consumption will pick up will offset the effects resulting from softening export demand," he said.

China's urban population, which outnumbered that of rural areas for the first time at the end of last year, is expected to account for 70 percent of the total population by 2030, according to an estimate from World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

An increase of a single percentage point indicates an addition of more than 10 million urban residents, each of whom will spur at least 100,000 yuan ($15,873) in infrastructure investment, said Zheng Xinli, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchange.

Quelch said boosting consumption will require the creation of a social safety net and an adequate public health care system in order to cut savings ratio.

With the reduction of its 2012 growth target to 7.5 percent and increased fiscal spending on people's well-being, the Chinese government has indicated that it has abandoned the "grow at all costs" approach, focusing more of its energy on boosting domestic consumption.

While delivering a government work report in March, Premier Wen Jiabao vowed to improve government policies designed to boost consumption, expand China's social safety net and further promote income distribution reform.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 中文字幕免费视频观看 | 欧美精品影院 | 国产视频在线一区 | 日本成人一区二区 | 一级欧美视频 | 亚洲欧洲日本在线 | 在线观看成年人视频 | xxxxx黄色| 日日射天天射 | 六月婷婷色 | 日韩专区中文字幕 | 日本一区二区视频在线 | 欧美日韩成人一区 | 蜜桃天堂 | 成人欧美一区 | 99综合| 色综合久久久久久 | 国产成人在线网站 | 婷婷伊人 | 国产精品久久久久久久妇 | 天堂va| 岛国av网站| 亚洲天堂影视 | 在线中文字幕网站 | 免费久久精品 | 猫咪av在线 | 王语嫣跪趴高撅翘臀含白浆 | 精品二区视频 | 欧美aaa级片 | 日韩资源在线 | 日韩1024| 亚洲自拍三区 | 中文字幕在线观看精品 | www.国产在线观看 | 在线看黄网 | 17c在线观看视频 | 一级黄色免费观看 | 成人免费毛片果冻 | 8x8ⅹ国产精品一区二区 | 波多野结衣一区二区三区在线 | 久久久久久久福利 |