日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Business / Markets

China would prefer rate cuts to stimulus

(Agencies) Updated: 2012-06-15 14:10

China is more likely to implement economic reform, cut interest rates and reduce bank reserve ratios to stimulate growth, rather than launch an expensive new stimulus plan, Reuters reported Thursday, citing current and former officials.

A steeper-than-expected growth slowdown in the world's second-biggest economy galvanized policymakers last week into cutting interest rates for the first time since the depths of the 2008/09 global crisis, and further easing is expected.

Two more interest rate cuts and three more reserve ratio cuts were possible before the end of the year, said Cao Wenlian, the former deputy director of the finance department at the National Development and Reform Commission.

China does not need another stimulus package like the huge 4 trillion yuan ($628 billion) spending binge in 2008/09, which super-charged growth but left local governments saddled with debt, he told a conference.

Instead, recently-announced "fine-tuning" policies are enough to ensure growth in an economy that is already bottoming out this quarter, said Cao, who is now deputy secretary general of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, a government think tank.

Cao's view was echoed by He Keng, deputy head of the finance and economics committee at the National People's Congress Standing Committee, China's rubber-stamp parliament.

"The second quarter will be the hardest period and data will turn better in the third and fourth quarter with full-year growth no less than 8 percent," He told the conference, adding that risks in the property market, high local government debt and rampant underground lending were more dangerous to the economy than the current short-term slowdown.

Analysts forecast in a Reuters benchmark poll in May that China would deliver second-quarter economic growth of 7.9 percent. They forecast full-year growth of 8.2 percent.

Weaker-than-expected economic numbers, which showed May retail sales rose at their weakest pace since February 2011 and fixed asset investment growth in the first five months at the lowest in nearly a decade, have prompted some analysts to cut their growth outlook for 2012.

An influential government adviser said in remarks published on Wednesday that annual GDP growth could drop below 7 percent in the second quarter, the most pessimistic forecast of any government or private-sector economist.

JP Morgan has cut its forecast on full-year economic growth to 7.7 percent from 8 percent while Deutsche Bank has trimmed its 2012 outlook to 7.9 percent from 8.2 percent.

"Accommodative"

Many analysts expect economic activity to pick up steadily in the coming months as policy easing and the government's speedy approval of investment projects gain traction.

JP Morgan expects the central bank to cut benchmark interest rates by another 25 basis points in the third quarter, along with two RRR cuts -- each at 50 bps.

"Even though the central government still says it will maintain prudent monetary policy, we do believe monetary policy is beginning to shift towards an accommodative stance," Jing Ulrich, chairman of global markets China at JP Morgan, told reporters.

But few analysts believe Beijing will loosen its curbs on the property sector soon, despite the strong lobbying by local government officials and property developers.

"We don't expect a sharp reversal in the housing (policy). At the local level, however, there will be some incremental loosening in the restrictions," Ulrich said.

A pick-up in housing sales in some major Chinese cities has raised suspicion that local officials are trying to revive the property sector with hidden subsidies and other incentives.

China risks a rebound in home prices two years from now if new home constructions, which have fallen in the past three months, kept declining and eventually led to short supply, said Fan Jianping, a senior researcher from the State Information Centre, another top government think tank.

In the meantime, while curbing speculation through existing tightening policies, China should cut land prices and lower lending rates to encourage construction of homes for ordinary residents, Fan said.

Beijing could announce reforms meant to put more income in the hands of households in the second half, after a parliamentary standing committee meeting later this month, He Keng said.

China's leaders, galvanized by poor economic data in April and May, announced a raft of reforms meant to tap private investment for infrastructure projects and allow more flexibility in the banking system and currency trading.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 日韩一道本| 欧美一级免费大片 | 免费国产一区二区三区 | 国产一区二区av | 中文字幕五区 | 日本美女裸体视频 | 这里只有精品9 | 日韩亚洲一区二区三区 | 99re在线| 日本亚洲最大的色成网站www | 三级视频小说 | 欧美肥妇bbw| 国产成人久久 | 黄色a一级 | av官网在线观看 | 日韩专区中文字幕 | www.精品| 天堂视频免费在线观看 | 涩涩网址| 成人一区二区三区在线 | 免费观看的av网站 | 天天舔天天操天天干 | 亚洲另类自拍 | 深夜视频在线观看 | 国产免费99| 日韩一区二区三区精品 | 超碰2021| 免费精品在线 | 伊人影院亚洲 | 亚洲91精品 | 中文字幕在线资源 | 成年人免费av | 国产精品视频www | 亚洲毛片在线看 | 国产一级在线 | 狠狠躁夜夜躁人人爽视频 | 国产激情二区 | 狠狠操狠狠插 | 日韩欧美激情 | 久久精品综合网 | 欧洲一区二区在线 |