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Business / Economy

When less might actually mean more

(China Daily) Updated: 2014-10-28 07:26

A1: During the National People's Congress earlier this year, Premier Li Keqiang set the target of GDP growth at "about 7.5 percent". As the economy expanded 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, that target is within reach. There is nothing magical about the 7.5 percent figure. If employment is strong and the government is pressing ahead with reforms agreed at the Third Plenum last year, slower growth could be seen as a positive.

When less might actually mean more

Tom Orlik, North Asia economist for Bloomberg

A2: There is a lot of discussion of a lower growth target for 2015. There are various pressures for slower growth. The working age population is set to shrink. As the world's top exporter, China's room to grow by expanding overseas sales is limited.

Banks are facing risks from rapid expansion of their loan books in the past few years. An unrealistically high target would put pressure on local governments to pump up growth with more capital spending. A modestly lower target, perhaps in the 6.5 to 7 percent range, would allow policymakers to focus more of their efforts on the reform agenda.

A3: A slowdown in China's economy this year was not inevitable. The government could have pumped up growth with another big stimulus. Another splurge in bank lending to finance major infrastructure, industrial projects and luxury apartments would have pushed growth back up toward 8 percent.

But by adding to strains on the banks and concerns about wasteful expenditure, it would also have tipped China's economy further off balance and made it more difficult to sustain growth in the medium term.

What the government has actually done - a targeted stimulus to prevent a sharper slide while focusing on longer-term reforms - makes a lot more sense.

A4: You have to look beyond the headline figures to the distribution of growth.

Supercharged growth looks great, but if all the benefits are going to a few insiders, that is not a good thing.

Slower growth looks bad, but if the benefits are distributed more evenly, there is a positive side to it.

If China can continue pushing ahead with its Third Plenum reforms and raise the share of workers and families in the national wealth, we are still going to see slower growth, but the benefits are going to be shared more widely.

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