http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/13/news/rice.php
JAKARTA:
When the U.S. secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, visits an Indonesian Islamic
primary school here Tuesday and later makes a speech praising this nation for
its rapid switch to democracy, she will be touching the mainstay of Washington's
concerns about the world's most populous Muslim country: that it sticks to the
path of moderation.
At the school, one of many in Indonesia now supported
with American funds, Rice is expected to share some of the limelight with a
character from the children's television show, "Sesame Street," an attempt to
soften the image of America as anti-Muslim.
But alongside what often
seems like a one-note U.S. agenda of fighting terrorism, Indonesia and
Australia, the next stop on Rice's journey, have another overriding interest. It
can be summed up in one word: China.
For Indonesia and Australia,
proximity to China is all. For them, China is not just a rising power as it is
often described in Washington, but it has already arrived as the regional power
in Southeast Asia that can spread economic benefit.
Analysts say China is
driving Asian economic integration through the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, which excludes Washington, and by 2010 the region's trade with China is
likely to outstrip trade with the United States.
To sweeten the economic
bonds, China has not been too pushy in other areas, so far stepping politely in
its strategic and diplomatic goals as it seeks the affections of surrounding
countries, many of which have had longstanding relations with the United
States.
"China has now established itself as the paramount regional power
in Southeast Asia," said Milton Osborne, a former Australian diplomat and
scholar on the region at the Lowy Institute of International Affairs in Sydney.
"This is widely recognized in Southeast Asia, however people choose to express
the idea."
Before leaving Washington, Rice sounded a cautionary note
about China, a tone with a harder edge than typically heard in Southeast
Asia.
She warned of the Chinese military buildup, a favorite subject
lately of the Pentagon, in particular the development of Chinese submarines that
could restrict U.S. military access to Taiwan.
Rice spoke of a possible
long-term "negative" role of China, and she seemed to suggest that the United
States might be recruiting partners, particularly Australia and Japan, in an
effort to contain China, a notion that analysts in the region say seems
passé.
"I think all of us in the region," Rice said, "particularly those
of us who are longstanding allies, have a joint responsibility and obligation to
try and produce conditions in which the rise of China will be a positive force
in international politics, not a negative force."
In Indonesia, China has
turned on the charm, transforming a relationship that was once fraught with
suspicion into a blossoming economic partnership.
Chinese state energy
companies have bought into Indonesian oil and natural gas fields in Java and
Papua, and are expected to bid on tenders for new power plants. In 2004,
Indonesian exports to China increased by 232 percent compared to the previous
year.
American oil companies have long had operations in Indonesia, and
Exxon Mobil, after a protracted battle with successive Indonesian governments,
announced Monday that it will develop the large Cepu oil field on
Java.
But in a measure of the sensitivities about American corporate
interests in nationalistic Indonesia, American businessmen said they expected
Rice to downplay any public comment about the Exxon Mobil deal.
"These
are some major new important competitors for business," James Castle, the
president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia, and a longtime
business consultant here, said of the Chinese. "If America wants to maintain a
presence it's going to have to work a lot harder. The Chinese are a big
player."
In Australia, where until a few years ago China was regarded
with distrust, Beijing has made strides, economically and diplomatically, that
are even more remarkable, especially given the hardy alliance between the
conservative Australian prime minister, John Howard, and President George W.
Bush.
The enduring economic boom in Australia is almost solely due to the
export of natural resources to China: huge amounts of iron ore, alumina and soon
natural gas and uranium. In the latest move, the Australian government is
expected to sign a deal next month to sell uranium to China for use in its
nuclear power plants.
Australia, which holds about 30 percent of the
world's uranium deposits, has said it will sell uranium to China because Beijing
is a signatory to the Nuclea
