Shanghai to the fore
Updated: 2007-09-06 06:31
The mainland stock market will become one of the world's most attractive financial centers this year in terms of new share issues, or initial public offerings (IPOs), say financial analysts.
In the second half of the year, in particular, the mainland stock market (combining the exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen) is expected to raise 1.1 trillion yuan ($144 billion).
According to Bloomberg, the 44 IPOs in the A-share market raised 124 billion yuan ($16.5 billion) in the first half, compared with 106 IPOs on the New York Stock Exchange Group (merged with Euronext), which raised $46 billion.
In a breakdown by category, companies registered and listed overseas, or red chips, and mainland-based firms listed overseas, or H shares, are likely to absorb 250 billion yuan once they issue A shares to mainland investors, according to Zhang Gang, an analyst with Southwest Securities.
The continuing restructuring of shareholding in State-owned enterprises will generate demand for 426.4 billion yuan once the reform is completed this year.Other Chinese companies are expected to raise another 419.5 billion yuan on the A-share market. So they "represent a demand for large amounts of money in the A-share market," said Zhang Qi from Haitong Securities. "The regulators will have to watch the market closely. If liquidity does not look good, IPOs may be postponed."
However, She Minhua, an analyst with Beijing-based CITIC China Securities, believes the A-share market will be awash with liquidity in the second half despite the recent central bank move to raise the interest rate and the government's decision to cut the tax on interest income from 20 percent to 5 percent.
"The real deposit interest rate is still in the negative territory, considering June's CPI rise to 4.4 percent. Bank deposits may absorb part of the liquidity from the stock market, but not that much," he said.
Among the largest companies likely to offer local IPOs are China Coal Energy, PetroChina and some red chips listed in Hong Kong.
China Coal Energy Co Ltd, the nation's second-largest coal producer by sales, was the most recent H-share company to announce its domestic listing plan.
(China Daily 09/06/2007 page53)
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