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Chinese population may swell to 1.5b

(Shanghai Daily)
Updated: 2008-10-24 14:55

The population on the Chinese mainland is expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2033, an official revealed at a forum in Beijing Thursday.

The population will see an annual increase of about 8 million people over the next decade and may reach 1.36 billion in 2010 and 1.4 billion in 2020, said Li Bin, director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission.

The number of people above the age of 65 is expected to reach 320 million by 2040, which will make up nearly 22 percent of the population. The elderly segment was only 8.1 percent of the population in 2007, Li said.

In addition to the pressures of a greyer population, the country will also battle a sex-imbalance that may seriously disrupt social stability, Li warned.

The sex ratio, or proportion of males to females, has been getting increasingly skewed since the 1990s, as many Chinese couples show a strong preference for boys.

The ratio had reached 119.92 in 2000 from 108 in 1981, which means 119 boys are born for every 100 girls across the country.

In five provinces, the figure has surged above 130, the commission said. Analysts say a proportion of 106 boys for every 100 girls can be considered normal.

China will have a male population of up to 30 million in 2020 who may not be able to find wives and partners because of the gender imbalance, Xinhua news agency said, citing Li Weixiong, a member of the People's Congress and also deputy director of the China Economy and Society Research Committee.

China is also expected to see its largest population mobilization when 300 million people enter urban centers in the next two to three decades.