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No let-up in sight in the battle to contain flu

By Wang Zhuoqiong and Lan Tian (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-05-09 09:01

The battle to stop the A(H1N1) influenza strain from spreading will become even more important in the autumn than it is today, says a top Chinese expert.

Despite the current slowdown in the spread of the virus, Qiang Zhengfu, director of the international department of the China Center for Disease Control (CDC), said people must not lower their guard in the months to come.

Special coverage:  A（H1N1) Influenza Outbreak Related readings:  Flu scare - a wake-up call to healthier living  Analysts: 'No impact' yet from A/H1N1 flu for China's economy  Chinese minister proposes int'l conference on A/H1N1 flu  Flu spreads in US, Asia pledges common fight  Asian countries pledge common fight against flu

"We are worried about the autumn," said Qiang, who explained that flu viruses tend to be short-lived in hot seasons but stronger and more of a threat in cooler months.

The CDC has invited the World Health Organization (WHO) and US CDC experts to discuss its plans and measures likely to be taken. Among them, actively strengthening the national monitoring network will be a key part.

Dong Xiaoping, a researcher at China CDC said it is unlikely something on the scale of the 1918 flu pandemic could happen, given the improved capacity of global prevention and protection systems. But the close tracking of whether the H1N1 virus is developing into something that is more of a threat will be crucial, Dong said.

Meanwhile, Yan Jiangying, a spokeswoman with the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA), said China would begin the production of a new vaccine against the A(H1N1) flu virus once the WHO sends China a sample of the flu strain.

China expects to be able to produce a vaccine four to six months after receiving the sample, she told a briefing on Friday.

She said the SFDA has built direct communication channels between domestic vaccine manufacturers and the WHO. The National Institute for the Control of Pharmaceutical and Biological Products and relevant departments have plans in place to improve the efficiency of vaccine approval and distribution.

"As flu vaccine development and production is a very strict scientific process, countries usually wait for the WHO to dispense flu strain samples before making a vaccine," she said.

Moreover, Yan said China has sufficient stocks of anti-flu drugs, but declined to elaborate.

The WHO recommended two antiviral drugs for the flu: Tamiflu made by Roche and Relanza produced by GlaxoSmithKline.

Tamiflu had been permitted to enter the Chinese market, but Relanza is still undergoing clinical trials, she said. However, the SFDA will allow the temporary importation of Relanza.

Domestic scientists also have been developing a new antiviral injection, Peramivir Trihydrate, which is expected to tackle the new flu strain, she said.

Bird flu kills more than 60 percent of its human victims, but doesn't easily pass from person to person. H1N1 flu can be spread with a sneeze or handshake, but kills only a small fraction of the people it infects.

So what happens if they mix?

This is the scenario that has some scientists worried: The two viruses meet - possibly in Asia, where bird flu is endemic - and combine into a new bug that is both highly contagious and lethal and can spread around the world.

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