Economy

China unlikely to see serious inflation in short term

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-05-31 10:35

BEIJING - Growth in China's consumer price index (CPI) is likely to see a reverse "V" shape this year and the possibility of a serious inflation is easing, said Ha Jiming, chief economist at the China International Capital Corp. (CICC).

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Speaking at an investor education activity in Beijing Saturday, Ha expected China's CPI to increase 3.2 percent in May from a year earlier, and said the CPI annual growth rate would even peak at 4 percent in June and July.

The country's CPI rose 2.4 percent year on year in March and the growth for April accelerated to 2.8 percent, according to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The pick-up in CPI growth was a result of lower comparison base last year and the risk for a serious inflation in short term was defusing because both the global commodity prices and domestic meat and vegetable prices were falling, he said.

In China, food prices accounted for one third of the CPI weight.

The CICC has cut its estimate for China's economic growth this year to 9.5 percent from 10.5 percent, he said.

Interest rate hikes would be unlikely this year as growth in consumer prices was expected to fall in the second half, he said.