As the two-child policy approaches its first birthday, commentators and the Chinese government are looking for evidence to see whether it has had the desired effect: an increase in the birth rate in order to mitigate some of the effects of an aging population.

At first glance, the evidence seems to be promising. It is estimated that there will be around 17.5 million births in 2016. At over one million more than in 2015 one might say the two-child policy has been a success. Without doubt, many couples have seized the opportunity to have a second child, realizing both a personal dream and a favorable outcome for the country. However, there are a few words of caution.

Firstly, as the Year of the Sheep, 2015 was widely perceived to be a not-so-good year to have children. Numerous studies have said the influence of the zodiac is still strong among the Chinese. It is likely, then, that many would-be parents may have simply postponed having children in 2015, choosing instead to have babies in the more favorable Year of the Monkey. Indeed, if we look at the longer-term trends, the number of births in 2015 actually fell from 2014.