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(From left to right)
Stefan Lauer from Lufthansa Group, Shenzhen Airlines President Dong Lijia and
Winfried Polte, spokesman for Deutsche Invertitions-und Entwicklungsgesellschaft, attend the agreement
signing ceremony on October 21 to form an all-cargo joint venture airlines after
nine months of negotiations. (newsphoto) |
China is expected to require up to 2,300 aircraft in the next 20 years,
a senior Boeing official said yesterday.
These airplanes, worth about US$183 billion, will quadruple the country's current
fleet to 2,801 by the end of 2023, said Randy Baseler, vice-president of
Boeing Commercial Airplanes responsible for marketing.
But three months ago, Adam Brown, vice-president of Airbus responsible
for customer affairs, said China will need to acquire a total of no less
than 1,316 mainline passenger jets valued at US$140 billion until 2022 to
accommodate growing travel demand and to renew their fleets.
Although the two made different predictions about China's aircraft
demands, they agreed the country would become the second largest
commercial aviation market outside the United States in the next two
decades.
"Passengers are the foundation of air travel, and in a competitive
market the airlines will continue meeting passenger demand for more
nonstop service to destinations around the world with longer-range,
efficient and comfortable airplanes," Baseler said.
China's air travel growth will outpace the increase in its gross
domestic product until 2023, he said.
The country's overall air traffic market is expected to increase 7.3
per cent annually, led by the domestic market's forecast average annual
growth of 8.1 per cent, he said.
Baseler's views were partly shared by Brown, who said China's airline
traffic would achieve robust long-term growth following a strong rebound
from various crises, such as terrorist attacks and the SARS outbreak.
"Passenger traffic carried by China's airlines would grow at an annual
rate of more than 20 per cent in 2004 and 2005, but it would grow at a
more normal secular rate of an average of 8.1 per cent per year by 2022,"
Brown said.
"Air travel will be driven by continuing robust growth in gross
domestic product and personal income," Brown said.
It will also be driven by deregulation of ticket prices, privatization
of airlines, less restrictive bilateral air services agreements with other
countries such as that recently signed with the United States, and the
increasing number of visas being issued to outbound tourists, he said.
Further stimulus to travel will be provided by the Beijing Olympic
Games in 2008, the Shanghai Expo in 2010 and the Guangzhou Asian Games in
2010, Brown said.
An additional driver will be the planned free-trade zone between China
and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Between 1980 and 1998, demand for air travel on China's domestic air
routes, fed by a sharp increase in disposable income, multiplied no less
than 20 times, growing at an average of 18 per cent per year compared with
average annual growth of 8.9 per cent for all modes of transport, Brown
said.
(China Daily) | 
Updated: 2004-10-22 14:23