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Britons head to elections, Labour leads
SEDGEFIELD, England - Britons go to the polls on Thursday to determine whether Prime Minister Tony Blair wins a historic third consecutive term in power despite widespread opposition to his support for the war in Iraq. After two landslide victories in 1997 and 2001, opinion polls suggest Blair will secure a third straight mandate -- a first for his center-left Labour party -- but the margin of victory remains very much in doubt. Four newspaper polls on Thursday gave Blair's Labour a lead of between three and six points over the main opposition Conservative Party. But surveys also show Labour supporters are less likely to vote. If turnout on the day is low and the key marginal constituencies which will determine the election go against Blair, his mandate could be much smaller. When Blair stormed to power in 1997, national turnout was 71 percent, but that slumped to 59 percent in 2001 -- the lowest level since World War One -- and may be even lower this time. Under Britain's winner-takes-all electoral system, 646 regional constituencies each elect one member of parliament. After an exhaustive bout of cross-country campaigning, Blair will cast his own vote in his home seat of Sedgefield, northern England, early on Thursday and await a night-time declaration of his personal result before returning to London. "It is going to be decided in these marginal constituencies and a few hundred votes or a few thousand votes either way will determine the result," he said in a last bout of electioneering late on Wednesday. If Blair is celebrating on Friday -- his 52nd birthday -- he would be the first Labour leader to win three successive elections. He has pledged to serve a full third term but not seek a fourth. He is hoping Labour's handling of the world's fourth largest economy, which has outperformed its European neighbors during the global downturn of recent years, will be his trump card. But voters, including many in his own party, remain deeply uncomfortable with his backing for the U.S.-led war in Iraq. That issue has dominated the latter stages of the campaign and remains the electoral wild card. NERVOUS LATE NIGHT WAIT? Polls open at 7 a.m. (0600 GMT) and close at 10 p.m. The first indication of the result will come almost instantly from an exit poll of thousands of Britons who have cast their vote, by broadcasters BBC and ITV. In the last two elections, exit polls accurately predicted Blair victories but in both cases he won by wide margins. But in 1992 they wrongly forecast a Labour party victory. A final Populus poll for the Times newspaper put Labour on 37.9 percent, with the Conservatives lagging on 31.7. It said that would translate into a parliamentary majority for Blair of between 100 and 130 seats, down from 161 last-time but still hefty. Three more newspaper polls put Labour on between 36 and 38 percent, with the Conservatives on 32 to 33. If Thursday's exit poll indicates a tight race, the result will remain very much in doubt for several hours to come. Individual results from seats across Britain begin pouring in from around 2230 GMT. Once the winning party takes its 324th seat, it is guaranteed an overall majority in parliament. All but nine mainland British seats are due to report before 0500 GMT on Friday although Northern Ireland's handful of results will be announced much later in the day. Blair's first task on re-election would be to shape a new Cabinet. He has already made clear his powerful finance minister and likely successor, Gordon Brown, will remain in his post. Analysts believe Blair will step down before he completes a third term -- perhaps if he loses a planned 2006 vote on the EU referendum -- and hand over to Brown. |
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