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Think again: It may not be China century
2010-Mar-8 07:47:44

China realized a V-shaped recovery in 2009 and maintained a GDP growth rate of 8.7 percent. The country's achievement has led many in the world to count on China for a way out and to place more international responsibilities, such as tackling climate change, on its shoulders that "come with its growing strength".

As 1.3 billion Chinese ushered in the Year of the Tiger - a symbol of power - last month, it seemed as if the prophecy that the 21st Century is the "century of China" had finally come true.

Or has it?

China is certainly a rising power but it is still a developing one. It has its own problems that needed to be addressed immediately, said Pan Rui, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Since the launch of its reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, China's GDP has been growing at an average annual rate of almost 10 percent, and 235 million people have been lifted out of poverty.

The country is the world's third largest economy behind the United States and Japan, and some experts predict it will overtake Japan this year and the US within two decades.

It has overtaken Germany to become the world's largest exporter. It holds the largest foreign currency reserves in the world, more than $2 trillion.

And, in spite of the global financial crisis, China contributed as much as 50 percent to global GDP growth in 2009.

However, though China's 33.5-trillion-yuan GDP was the world's third highest, its per capita GDP was far lower, at above $3,000, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said in early February during a trip to Munich, Germany. That figure ranked 104th in the world.

Uneven development remains a prominent problem. Big cities like Beijing and Shanghai do not represent the whole of China, and many rural and remote areas are still very poor.

About 135 million Chinese live on less than a dollar a day and 10 million have no access to electricity.

China managed to sustain a GDP growth rate of more than 8 percent in 2009 thanks to its 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package, but Professor Pan said heavy government investment was not a long-term strategy.

China's domestic consumption capability is still poor - a result of a high savings rate under pressure from housing, healthcare, education and social welfare - and has made the country's economy vulnerable and heavily reliant on exports, he said.

"Restructuring the country's economy is the top priority now," Pan said.

Commenting on calls for China to shoulder more international responsibilities, Pan said, "China certainly should shoulder due responsibilities, but they should be in line with China's own economic and social capacities."

The country's most pressing task is to address domestic issues, which is the basis for the country to take up more international responsibilities, Pan said.

"China's handling of domestic issues, if proper, is itself a contribution to the international society," said Professor Zheng Yongnian, director of East Asia Institute of National University of Singapore.

"The adroit handling of domestic issues is the foundation for China to hold other responsibilities in the international community," he said.

Recent reports cited Foreign Minister Yang as saying that China's focus is still on development to enable the 1.3 billion people to live comfortably.

But China has already taken up its due international responsibilities, said Pan.

The country had taken an active part in the international cooperation on the financial crisis, by promoting the establishment of an Asian foreign exchange reserves pool worth $120 billion, and signing with other countries on currency swap agreements totaling $650 billion.

It also canceled the debts of 49 heavily indebted poor countries and least developed countries, and provided over 200 billion yuan in aid to other developing countries.

China was actively involved in international peacekeeping operations. As the largest peacekeeper-contributor among permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, it has altogether sent more than 10,000 peacekeeping personnel on 24 UN peacekeeping missions, including more than 2,100 currently deployed.

To address global climate change, the government announced a "voluntary action" in November to reduce the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 to 45 percent compared with 2005 levels, even though it did not hold as much historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions as developed countries.

"The target of a 45-percent reduction itself is already a big challenge for China," Pan said. "Anything more than that is a responsibility beyond the reach of China's capacity."

The authors are writers with Xinhua News Agency.

(China Daily 03/08/2010 page8)

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