The real problem for the future: aging
Updated: 2010-03-30 07:36
By Lau Nai-keung(HK Edition)
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Hong Kong used to be a city of opportunities and hope. Now one of its major worries is social mobility which became the subject of a recent motion debate in the Legislative Council, and a focus discussion at the government's top think tank, the Commission for Strategy Development. Youths in particular feel that, unlike their parents, they have very little room to improve their standard of living and climb up the social ladder. Even the possibility of buying their own flat seems remote in the foreseeable future.
This perception is bleak indeed, but politics, as they say, is perception. With agitation from politicians and the media, our youths are getting more restive by the day. Now that the issue is getting more public attention, the government still is at a loss as to how to address it adequately.
While not denying the gravity of the situation, and the urgency of tackling the grave social inequality and injustice behind it, I do think that the problem with the younger generations does not lie in opportunities and mobility, but more in managing their rising expectations. Among the older generation, it was easy for young graduates to maintain and even improve their standard of living compared with their parents once they started working. Now it is the other way round, and it is very difficult for young people to live independently and maintain the standard of living of their parents.
With no experience to draw on, it is natural for young workers to develop a rather pessimistic view about their future. The fact is that the populations of most of the developed countries worldwide together with that of China are aging, and soon will be shrinking. The working population is forecast to decline around 2025 before the entire population hits its peak at 1.6 billion.
During the coming decade, the post-war baby boomers will gradually retire and fade out of the labor market, and those who were born in the 1980s and onward will be in great demand. If China continues to grow at a reasonable though lower rate, there will be a lot more opportunities for the younger generations than they can imagine at the present time. However, as the older people now live much longer, the smaller working population of future will have to support more people. Like it or not, this is going to be their real problem in the future, and not opportunity and social mobility.
The author is a member of the Commission for Strategic Development
(HK Edition 03/30/2010 page1)