Hong Kong is doing well, no matter what fearmongers say
Updated: 2016-09-08 07:01
By Peter Liang(HK Edition)
|
|||||||
Peter Liang writes that there is no evidence for HK's 'downward spiral' as some scaremongers have argued, rather it is still a vibrant place and people have good reasons to be optimistic
In the numerous Legislative Council election debates, nearly every candidate, irrespective of his or her color and ilk, has made a point of dumping on Hong Kong.
The candidates in the pro-establishment camp laid the blame on the opposition politicians for dragging Hong Kong into permanent decline, while their opponents, who are commonly lumped together as the so-called "pan-democrats", maintained - as they have always done - that the government and its supporters should be held responsible for tearing apart the city's social and economic fabrics.
They are both wrong. There is nothing to suggest that Hong Kong is caught in a downward spiral, accompanied by a "dysfunctional government" or an "institutional meltdown". Instead, the basic building blocks of the society and its economy, anchored by an efficient administration and independent judiciary, have remained largely intact.
Occasional mass demonstrations and the much rarer outbursts of violence in the streets may have left traces of ugly scars on the otherwise pristine social fabric. But these anomalies were triggered not by overt oppression from the authorities but, rather, by unfulfilled public demands, some of which were not all that realistic in the first place.
The fearmongers among the politicians have repeatedly harped on the theme that Hong Kong's economic growth is lagging behind those of its perceived competitors in the region, notably Shanghai and Shenzhen. They are missing the point.
Unlike most other competing cities in the region, Hong Kong is growing from a large base with a restricted supply of workers and land. The problem for Hong Kong is compounded by a rapidly aging population which, like in Japan and other advanced economies, will further constrain the expansion of the labor pool.
With an average annual growth of more than 5 percent since 1974, Hong Kong has more than held its own among developed economies. More important is that productivity, as measured by output per worker, has been growing consistently since 2006 according to the Census and Statistics Department, while unemployment is kept below 3 percent - except for the spike in 2003 during the worst recession in recent years.
Despite the widening wealth gap, real wages have been increasing steadily in the past five years from an average of HK$14,000 in 2013 to HK$15,000 in early 2016. Some economists had earlier warned that the economic downturn would lead to a sharp increase in unemployment. But instead, the strong demand for workers, especially in the construction sector, has resulted in an overall increase in basic wages across the services sector.
Of course, not everything looks as rosy as it seems. Hong Kong's highly efficient container port facilities are widely seen to be in gradual decline. This is due entirely to external factors beyond the control of anyone in Hong Kong. An increasingly large portion of exports from the industrial powerhouse of the Pearl River Delta region are shipped directly from the rapidly expanding port facilities in Shenzhen rather than re-routing through Hong Kong.
This and other similar developments do not necessarily suggest that Hong Kong is going down "skid row" as some alarmists have suggested. They should be seen as the natural results of progress in other economies.
There is no point in trying to win back lost business. Instead, Hong Kong should simply leverage its advantages to expand those businesses in which it still has an edge, as it has done so well in recent years, and explore new business opportunities.
The more pertinent question is whether Hong Kong people have lost their can-do spirit. We are hearing a lot of complaints about our young people being too lazy, dependent and uninitiated. But those who complain the most now should try to remember that they were labeled as such when they were young by their elders.
Despite its obvious flaws, including air pollution, overcrowding and noisy streets, Hong Kong is still a highly livable, vibrant city with considerable charm. Just don't listen to those scaremongers with LegCo ambitions.
The author is a veteran current affairs commentator.
(HK Edition 09/08/2016 page9)