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Yue Songdong

Research Report No 051, 2003

I. Basic Situation in China’s Population in 2002

According to the Statistical Bulletin on the National Economy and Social Development in 2002 issued by the National Statistical Bureau on February 28, 2003, development of China’s population in 2002 showed the following five features.

1. The total population continued to grow but the natural growth rate continued to slow down.

In 2002, China had a newly-born population of 16.47 million. The birth rate was 12.86 per thousand and the mortality rate was 6.41 per thousand. The country saw a net increase of 8.26 million people. The natural growth rate was 6.45 per thousand. By the end of 2002, China had a total population of 1284.53 million (excluding the statistics of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions. Same, hereinafter.), China’s trend in population changes since 1990 is seen in Table 1.

The birth rate in 2002 was 0.52 per thousand points lower than that in 2001, the death rate dropped by 0.02 per thousand points, so the natural growth rate was 0.5 per thousand points lower than that in 2001. Since the 1990s, the Chinese population has been transformed from a high birth rate, low death rate and high natural growth rate to a low birth rate, low death rate and low natural growth rate. The Chinese population has entered a period of stable and low level development.

2. Rural population continued to migrate towards cities and the pace of urbanization was manifestly accelerating

When the fifth national census started on November 1, 2000, there were 455.94 million people in urban areas, accounting for 36.09 percent of the total population. The rural population numbered 807.39 million, accounting for 63.91 percent of the total population. By the end of 2001, the urban population numbered 480.64 million, accounting for 37.7 percent of the total population. The rural population numbered 795.63 million, accounting for 62.3 percent of the total. By the end of 2002, the urban population numbered 502.12 million, accounting for 39.1 percent of the total population. The rural population numbered 782.41 million, accounting for 60.9 percent of the total population in China.

During a short span of two years from November in 2000 to the end of 2002, the urban population was increased by 47.18 million while the rural population was reduced by 24.98 million. The ratio of urban population against the total population was increased by 3 percentage points, while that of the rural population dropped by three percentage points. This means that rural population continued to migrate towards cities on a massive scale and the pace of urbanization is manifestly accelerating.

3. The ratio of teenagers and children population continued to drop while that of the aged people was rising. The ageing of the population was aggravating.

When the fifth national census took place on November 1, 2000, there were 289.79 million people aged between 0～14, accounting for 22.89 percent of the total population. By the end of 2001, the population of this age group numbered 287.16 million, accounting for 22.5 percent of the total population. By the end of 2002, the population of this age group numbered 287.74 million, witnessing a slight increase over the end of 2001 but its ratio against the total population continued to decline, standing at 22.4 percent. This shows that China’s family planning continued to maintain its dynamics and the birth rate continued to be effectively controlled at a low level. On the other hand, there were 88.11 million people aged at or above 65 on November 1, 2000, accounting for 6.69 percent of the total population. By the end of 2001, the figure rose to 90.62 million, accounting for 7.1 percent of the total population. By the end of 2002, the aged population numbered 93.77 people, accounting for 7.3 percent of the total population. The trend shows that that the ageing of population continued to aggravate.

4. The working population continued to increase and the ratio of total population dependent on others for a living showed a decreasing trend

Working population refers to the population aged between 16-64 with labor capabilities. The baby boomers, who were born during the 1960s and 1970s were entering young and middle ages. As the size of the population of this age group had a big base, the working population had continued to maintain continuous growth in recent years. By the end of 2001, China had 850.11 million labor-age people. By the end of 2002, the figure was 903.02 million, an increase of 6.22 percent over 2001.

Since the founding of New China, the ratio of dependency population in the total population has witnessed substantial changes as seen in Table 2. The ratio of children and teenagers has seen the biggest changes. From 61.17 percent in 1953 to 31.86 percent in 2002, the ratio was slashed by nearly half. The ratio of aged population has been rising since 1964 and the range of growth is not big. This is because the size of aged population is smaller than that of children and teenagers. Due to the effects of the drop in the ratio of children and teenagers, the overall ratio of dependency population against the total population saw a substantial decline, from 68.61 percent in 1953 to 42.25 percent in 2002. With continued ageing of the population, the ratio of teenagers and children will further decrease but the momentum will slow down while the ratio of aged people will slowly climb up. Weighing the two ratios, the overall ratio will maintain a decreasing trend.

The above-mentioned population trend will give rise to a population age structure that is favorable to the economic development. Namely, both minors’ population and ageing population will take up a relatively low ratio in the total population. This structure will last for a relatively long period of time before China enters a high ageing society. The population structure of " big in the middle and small at both ends" ensures ample supply of labor, a low ratio of dependency population, a relatively light social burden, which is conducive to economic development and accumulation of retirement insurance fund. Demographers call this period as "the period with the population opportunity window kept open". Based on dynamic analysis on the Chinese population, "population opportunity window" will keep open from 1990 to 2030. To around the year 2010, the dependency coefficient of the population will drop to the lowest level. After 2010, due to the acceleration of ageing, the dependency coefficient of the population will cease decreasing and start to rise. Therefore, China must grasp the advantageous opportunity that comes with the opening of the "population opportunity window" and accelerate construction of a well-off society.

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