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An Analysis of China’s Macro-Economic Performance Since 2008: From Crisis Response to the State of New Normal
2017-04-11
By Liu Shijin, DRC
2016-11-01
This book is a collection of research findings from 2008 to 2015 made by DRC research teams respectively on China’s macro-economic performance and China’s mid-to-long-term economic development. These research findings are selected from research papers on the quarterly and yearly economic performance and mid-to-long-term economic growth at different periods. The book covers the economic development in the following aspects.
First, the forward-looking and basic judgments on economic performance since 2008 have played an active role in government decision-making and these judgments are related to the transition of economic development at different periods, the economic development under the state of new normal, the reform-based supply-side policies, the quality-oriented development targets and some other major decisions and guiding policy principles 1. The book gives an analysis of the impacts induced by international financial crisis and judgments on its three-stage evolution. 2. The book points out that China’s economy will witness substantial structural changes and institutional reforms after entering a mid-level growth phase. 3. The book introduces the concept and connotation of the new normal, and points out that the government will deal simultaneously with the slowdown in economic growth, make difficult structural adjustments and absorb the effects of previous economic stimulus policies. 4. The book indicates that China needs to enhance growth drivers by transforming from mainly relying on factor input to an innovation-driven mode. 5. The book proposes to lay more emphasis on reform-oriented and supply-side policies, to ensure that macro-demand policies need to make progress while maintaining economic performance stable and to make innovations in industrial regulations and production capacity adjustment. 6. The book puts forward quality-oriented development goals and requires to lay more emphasis on quality but less emphasis on growth rate through the implementation of various reform measures. 7. The book maintains that three conditions are required to ensure that China’s economy will realize a rebalanced development through economic transformation, including the high investment growth touching the bottom, the reduction of overcapacity and the formation of new growth drivers.
Second, the logic of the book. 1. Based on international experience, the book builds an analytic framework composed of initial conditions, systems, strategies and long-term demand-based peak value of major industrial products governed by technology and supply. 2. The book makes a study on some major and fundamental issues, such as the significance of opening-up, the role of investment, structural upgrading, relations between government and market and income distribution.
