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Monthly Review on Macro-Economic Performance（No.9, 2018）
2019-02-20
Issue No.9, 2018 (Total 105)
2018-11-30
In October, some economic indicators took a turn for the better, but the overall downward pressure on the economy remained large. The industrial growth stood at 5.9% year on year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point month on month. Investment from January to October increased by 5.7% year on year, 0.3 percentage points faster than that from January to September, of which Investment growth in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors both increased by 0.4 percentage points month on month. With the growth rate of investment in infrastructure ending a slide, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing continued to pick up. Exports (in US dollars) rose by 15.6% year on year, up 1.1 percentage points from September. Meanwhile, it should be noted that consumption growth slowed down again in October, and the growth rate of investment in real estate continued to fall slightly. In the future, export growth will still face great pressure, inventory will witness a downturn performance, and downward pressure on demand will become significant. In October, credit and social financing grew slowly, and the tightening effect of deleveraging continued to bring out effects. Tax-cutting effect loomed up and the current fiscal revenue showed a negative growth. Viewing from a comprehensive perspective, affected by multiple factors both from home and abroad, China’s economic operation will face more difficulties and hard issues, and the downward trend of economic growth is still prominent. With regard to future measures to be taken, the fiscal policy needs to be more proactive, the deficit rate could be raised appropriately next year, and the amount of issuance of special bonds by local governments could be expanded. Monetary policy should be moderate. We need to focus on improving the transmission mechanism, strengthen coordination with the financial supervision, take multiple measures to mitigate the impact of pro-cyclical adjustment of financial institutions, and increase financial support to the real economy. We need to make more efforts in strengthening weak links and increase effective investment in major and key areas. We need to make more efforts in leveling the playing field for competition and strengthening property rights protection, implement relevant policies to shore up the business of private sectors and boost the vitality of micro entities.
