"It has been my view for sometime that although the United States does not
support Taiwan independence, it does not have the determination to prevent Chen
Shui-Bian from achieving de jure independence through tricks of this sort," Mr.
Yan said.
He added that the burden of preventing Taiwanese independence must fall on
Beijing more than the United States. The risk of military conflict remains
relatively high as long as Mr. Chen controls Taiwan's government, he said.
Mr. Huang of People's University was more sanguine about the preventing an
escalation of tensions. He said that although Mr. Chen persisted with his latest
move, the United States had been proactive in opposing the measure from the
start, forcing at least a nominal concession from Mr. Chen and making clear that
additional moves would jeopardize Taiwan's already strained ties with the Bush
administration.
But he said China would likely look for President Bush to make a fresh
commitment to oppose Taiwanese independence, perhaps during Chinese President Hu
Jintao's planned visit to Washington in April. In late 2003, Mr. Bush strongly
opposed moves by Mr. Chen to solidify Taiwan's independent status during a visit
to Washington by China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao.
"The United States need to make clear that it understands what Mr. Chen is
doing and will not allow him to get away with it," said Mr. Huang. "It's obvious
that the line needs to be drawn again."
In contrast, some Taiwanese lawmakers said Mr. Chen's move was vital to
preserving a balance in cross-Strait relations, which have become dominated by
the mainland.
Hsiao Bi-khim, an influential lawmaker from Chen's ruling Democratic
Progressive Party, said that Mr. Chen had been increasingly worried
that Beijing had been trying to gain the upper hand and reshape
cross-straits relations.
"He feels that you need to do something drastic to pull things back into
balance," she said, adding that she did not expect any further initiatives on
sovereignty issues now that Chen has disposed of the unification council and
guidelines.
Ms. Hsiao cited Beijing's increasing cooperation with opposition parties
here, which has included visits to the mainland last spring by the chairmen of
the two main parties favoring an eventual political unification with the
mainland, the Nationalist Party and the People First Party.
Ma Ying-jeou, the popular mayor of Taipei and chairman of the Nationalist
Party, called for eventual political unification with the mainland using
language that bore strong similarities to the National Unification Guidelines, a
move that also made Chen more eager to get rid of the
guidelines.
