Op-Ed Contributors

Give talks a chance in Libya

By An Huihou (China Daily)
Updated: 2011-03-30 07:42

The first possibility is that Gadhafi will be overthrown. Since the coalition has already gone beyond the UN mandate, there is no guarantee that it will not try to assassinate Gadhafi using precision-guided missiles. Once Gadhafi is gone, his government will collapse automatically.

Even if Gadhafi survives the bombings, the coalition forces can take him out through other means. The coalition can help strengthen the rebel forces to overthrow him. Or, it can induce government forces into defecting and joining the fight against the Libyan leader.

The second possibility is a long-drawn confrontation between government forces and the rebels, leading to a division of the country. Since the Western countries have not given up their aim of toppling Gadhafi through other means, they could bargain with him more vigorously in the future, which will be a time-consuming process.

The third possibility is also the one most desired, that is, peaceful negotiation. The AU has come forward to help resolve the conflict through negotiations, and deserves the international community's greatest attention.

If negotiations are not given a chance and Gadhafi is forcibly ousted from power, the consequences will be serious and could throw the country into utter chaos. The different factions among the rebels and the complexity of their relationships, compounded by the absence of a capable leader, could even turn Libya into a second Somalia.

Gadhafi's ouster could also prompt opposition parties in other Arab countries to try to replicate the phenomenon and thus worsen the situation in the region.

Moreover, the increasing unrest caused by the West-led military intervention in the Middle East and North Africa is bound to raise anti-American and anti-Western sentiments in the region, which in turn will breed religious extremism and terrorism.

And if the crisis in Libya continues, the region's oil production will fall, causing severe shortage and shooting up prices in the international market. This will jeopardize world economic recovery.

None of the above scenarios that could follow Gadhafi's ouster would be beneficial to Western countries.

The AU has already invited representatives of Gadhafi's government, the Libyan opposition and other related parties to talks so that the crisis can be resolved through dialogue. It is important for the international community to support the AU's initiative wholeheartedly. And it is important, too, that the coalition forces stop their attacks on Libya immediately and support the AU's mediation efforts.

The author is a research scholar with Beijing-based China Foundation for International Studies, and China's former ambassador to Algeria, Tunisia, Lebanon and Egypt.

(China Daily 03/30/2011 page9)