Two presumptions can be made according to this theory. First, the third wave of Arab uprising can be seen as a renewed effort for an Arab program of modernity. No wonder, many Egyptian parties are conceiving grand industrialization plans after Hosni Mubarak was overthrown.

Second, the Arab world will not necessarily embrace Western democracy. Religious and cultural traditions will continue to have an impact on the future political landscape of the region. The Arabs will develop their own type of democracy, encouraging greater political participation and power distribution. The Arab uprisings are home-grown movements, an independent quest for a better future rather than a copycat version of Western democracy.

Even though the "Arab Spring" will not eradicate all social and political ills and conflicts, a crumbling Arab world on the margins of globalization benefits no one. The new Arab governments, as well as the transforming old ones, are likely to get sincere help from China in the years ahead.

The geopolitical ramifications of the Middle East and North African uprisings are complex. It is not a blessing for the US to get along with a snickering Iran, a beleaguered Israel and stronger anti-American foreign policies of most elected Arab governments. The European Union (EU), handicapped by its own debt crisis, finds its southern neighbors above its bend. The Middle East and North African region is a test for the EU to promote peace and democracy at its doorstep. It is thus safe to say that the "Arab Spring" is a sign of withering Western influence in the region, a trend that began after the end of the colonization era.

For China, a late entrant to the region, the uprisings create challenges as well as opportunities. Energy supply, sea route security and overseas interest protection are flash points coming together with the uprisings. The Arab uprisings add urgency to China's already painful soul searching of the limits and focus of its global reach. But the signature ultra-pragmatism in Chinese diplomacy is likely to prevail.

In spite of policy divergence and lack of full trust, the US, the EU and China are open to the idea of cooperation for a better Middle East and North Africa. A peaceful, stable, prosperous and global Arab world is in the interest of everyone. But neither the West nor China alone can make this come true. A trilateral strategic cooperation may be hard to come by, but cooperation on small projects such as building a business-friendly environment in Libya will be a good start.

Li Shaoxian is a researcher at and vice-president of China Institutes of Contemporary Relations (CICR), and Huang Jing is an associate researcher in European studies at CICR.