日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Reforms will enhance growth potential

By Ma Jun (China Daily) Updated: 2014-02-19 07:05

Since the beginning of December, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has declined 13 percent. The sell-offs in many emerging markets, especially Turkey, Argentina and Brazil, were triggered by their sharp currency depreciation as a result of the United States' tapering of its quantitative easing, as well as market fears of an external debt crisis, for example in Turkey; the negative impact of local rate hikes, for instance in Brazil and India; inflation in Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia, South Africa; and potential economic contractions, as well as political instability in Turkey and Thailand.

Interestingly, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has also dropped by a significant 16 percent during the same period. This decline was close to the fall in the country equity indices of Turkey and Argentina and a little sharper than that of Brazil. It appears that the market believes that China's economic situation has deteriorated as much as those in Argentina and Turkey in recent weeks. Some investors are now asking when Chinese government will ease its macroeconomic policy to stimulate the economy.

However, this is a question no one in the Chinese government is talking about, simply because there is no need to.

This market perception of China is wrong. China's economic fundamentals are much healthier than most other emerging markets and China is one of the least vulnerable emerging economies to the US' tapering.

First, compared with other emerging market currencies, China's currency has been the most stable in the past weeks, and it will likely remain stable. Based on past experience, the renminbi should remain one of the currencies that is most resilient to external shocks this year, given that its capital account is still largely controlled for portfolio flows and the macro fundamentals are very supportive of the currency. The renminbi is likely to appreciate by about 2 percent against the US dollar this year, although a modest increase in its flexibility is possible.

Second, the macro fundamentals are much stronger in China than in many other emerging economies. China's GDP growth was 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, higher than the 7.5 percent annual target, and its volatility was within 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points on a year-on-year basis in the past few quarters. Its consumer price index inflation was 2.5 percent in December and will likely remain around 2.5 percent for the coming few months, representing the most stable period in history. Its current account maintained a healthy surplus of about 2 percent last year and will almost certainly stay in surplus this year. External debt is 8.8 percent of GDP. These data compare very favorably with many other emerging markets that experienced significant growth deceleration, large current account deficits, and higher inflation.

Third, China's political situation has become more stable since the change of leadership, partly due to the success of the anti-corruption program, while other emerging economies, such as Thailand, Turkey, South Africa, India and Brazil, are now either experiencing serious political challenges and/or facing uncertain election outcomes.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

Most Viewed Today's Top News
New type of urbanization is in the details
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产精品一区视频 | 97在线观看免费视频 | www.激情五月.com| 日韩欧美一区二区三区四区 | av毛片在线播放 | 国产成人免费 | 国产白浆视频 | 欧美一级片免费 | 久久久久一区二区三区四区 | 好男人久久 | 婷婷色视频 | 久久激情免费视频 | 国产黄色精品视频 | 欧美一级免费看 | 全部孕妇毛片丰满孕妇孕交 | 日韩有码一区 | 夜夜骚av| 亚洲免费av一区二区 | 伊人五月婷婷 | 欧美日韩视频 | 欧美色道 | 永久免费av网站 | 太久av | 天堂资源中文在线 | 中文字幕1区2区 | 成人爽爽视频 | 97视频网站 | 成人毛片在线精品国产 | 无遮挡av| a级片在线视频 | 国产成人在线网址 | 浪漫樱花在线观看高清动漫 | 综合第一页 | 亚洲一区二区三区免费在线观看 | 国产又爽又黄网站 | 一区二区三区四区视频在线观看 | 欧美激情免费视频 | 国产精品成人一区二区三区 | 色视频在线播放 | 日韩欧美网 | 国产91在线播放九色 |