Although there is a good chance that Obama will use his visit to remind the world of the US' treaty obligations, it is almost certain that he will avoid provocative statements. He is more likely to employ "quiet diplomacy" to warn Abe that he is "part of the problem" in the Western Pacific. For example, after Abe's recent visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors 14 Class-A war criminals, the US embassy in Tokyo issued a statement that said: "The United States is disappointed that Japan's leadership has taken an action that will exacerbate tensions with Japan's neighbors."

Moreover, some US lawmakers are urging Japan to unequivocally apologize for its wartime "comfort women" system. On Feb 5, 2014, US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel praised the calls by some regional leaders to seek a peaceful and negotiated resolution to the dispute in the East China Sea. But the problem is that Abe does not even acknowledge that there is a dispute.

In sum, it appears that Obama's visit to Japan will not yield many dividends for any country. On the economic front, the US president's efforts to revive the troubled TPP negotiations are likely to fall flat. And on the security front, Abe will probably receive the customary statement about the value of the US-Japan security treaty - not the broader commitment he desires. Perhaps most disappointing is the likelihood of Obama being unable to convince Abe to adopt a more measured approach toward sensitive issues and thereby reduce tensions with Japan's neighbors.

The author is distinguished professor and director of the Graduate Program in Global Studies at Missouri State University, US.

(China Daily 04/23/2014 page9)