日批在线视频_内射毛片内射国产夫妻_亚洲三级小视频_在线观看亚洲大片短视频_女性向h片资源在线观看_亚洲最大网

US EUROPE AFRICA ASIA 中文
Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Iran-Saudi row unlikely to raise oil prices

By Mei Xinyu (China Daily) Updated: 2016-01-18 08:22

Iran-Saudi row unlikely to raise oil prices
Li Min/China Daily

The year 2016 for the Middle East began with the political crisis caused by the arrest and execution of Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia. Apart from intensifying tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, al-Nimr's execution and its aftermath also raised concerns in entire Persian Gulf region.

Even if Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontation continues, oil prices are unlikely to rise.

Economic and political fundamentals will determine oil prices this year, and the "bearish" oil market will continue for some more years, although prices in the international market are rising in the short term.

We must realize that though market players see the Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontation as a geopolitical risk, economic logic tells us that geopolitical risks alone do not lead to a rise in prices; after a short period, the situation will likely stabilize and oil production will return to normal.

Before the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), both countries were major oil producers and exporters. So oil prices should have skyrocketed after the war broke out. Instead, the opposite happened as oil prices plummeted by 50 percent between 1986 and 1987, signaling the beginning of more than 15 years of bearish oil market.

Theoretically speaking, oil prices have risen only when demand has surpassed supply or when geopolitical risks have significantly disrupted or threatened the transportation of oil.

The current international oil market is characterized by oversupply of millions of barrels a day and there is still huge overcapacity, and even during political turmoil, rival parties are not expected to undermine oil production or transportation. On the contrary, all sides make efforts to protect oil production to the best of their abilities because that will ensure more sales and increase their incomes.

The last round of the bullish oil market, from 2002 until the first half of 2014, gave way to falling oil prices largely due to financial speculation and weakening of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' monopoly. In this case, although the Iran-Saudi Arabia row is seen by some market players as a "geopolitical risk", it will not lead to a reduction in oil output capacity or hinder oil transportation. Rather, it will prompt policymakers in oil producing countries to increase outputs and further weaken the OPEC "cartel", and accelerate the lifting of sanctions against Iran and raise its production capacity, which will lead to further fall in oil prices.

Moreover, contrary to popular belief, the hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia could increase the investment in Iran's oil and gas sector, because Western powers don't want to see political forces in Iran and Saudi Arabia and other major Islamic countries coming together to form an alliance.

The Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontation will serve the United States' purpose of driving another wedge between the Shiite and Sunni majority countries. As a result, the US could expedite the implementation of its nuclear agreement with Iran, lift the sanctions on Teheran, increase investment in Iran which will boost its oil production capacity. All this will increase oil production not only in Iran; perhaps it will increase outputs of other countries as well.

Also, the Iran-Saudi Arabia row could spur Riyadh to also increase its oil production. This is not only because Saudi Arabia wants to prevent Iran from eating into its market share, but also because the deterioration in Riyadh-Teheran relations will force Saudi Arabia to greatly expand its military budget, which will be a drain on its finances.

The author is a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce's International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute.

Most Viewed Today's Top News
...
主站蜘蛛池模板: av片在线观看免费 | 日本久久久久久久久久久 | 欧美三级网站在线观看 | 国产日韩在线视频 | 人人模人人干 | 婷婷丁香九月 | 天天在线免费视频 | 免费看a毛片 | 成人小视频免费 | caoporn国产 | 一级做a爱片久久毛片 | 中字av在线 | 欧美做受高潮中文字幕 | 免费在线性爱视频 | 亚洲免费在线播放 | 日韩中文字幕在线观看视频 | 成人免费区一区二区三区 | 欧美在线a | 午夜影视av| 国产免费福利视频 | 日韩国产精品一区二区 | 操亚洲女人 | 久久久久久一级片 | 国产精品久久婷婷六月丁香 | 91麻豆精品 | 日本中文字幕在线播放 | 久久久久久久久久久97 | 亚洲第一在线视频 | 欧洲精品 | 黄色无毒网站 | 国产在线观看免费网站 | 亚洲国产无 | 黄色免费在线观看视频 | 男人午夜视频 | 特级特黄刘亦菲aaa级 | 欧美久久久久久久 | 亚洲性视频 | 黄色片视频免费观看 | 欧美一区二区三区四区五区六区 | 丁香六月色婷婷 | 四虎视频国产精品免费入口 |