Chen Xiangyang

Importance of China's neighborhood

By Chen Xiangyang (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-05-07 07:51

In April, a series of large-scale riots broke out in Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, and other cities and regions of the Central Asian country. Tens of thousands of opposition supporters took to the streets, clashed with security forces, toppled local governments and seized the central government's headquarters in Bishkek. Subsequently, the opposition proclaimed a new interim government led by Roza Otunbayeva, the former foreign minister. It is reported that Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the ousted president, has resigned, parliament has been dissolved and the military has agreed to cooperate with the opposition (which now is in power).

Some of China's neighboring countries have encountered considerable political fluctuations, even political turbulence. Take South Asia for example. The US has reinforced its presence in Afghanistan, even though tension between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the occupation (NATO) forces is rising. Pakistan has been rocked by frequent, bloody terrorist attacks. And anti-government forces have attacked Indian security forces' camps in interior areas, resulting in heavy casualties.

In Southeast Asia, Thailand is still caught in a political tumult, with pro-government and anti-government protesters taking to the streets in turn or at the same time, and the new round of peaceful negotiation has reportedly reached a deadlock. In Myanmar, the military government is eager to further "mop up" local armed forces in its northern ethnic minority areas before the "general election".

In Northeast Asia, anti-government demonstrations have broken out in Mongolia, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is still complicated, and the approval rating of the Yukio Hatoyama government in Japan has plunged.

The political unrest in China's neighboring countries can be classified into three types. First is the periodic "flip-flop" in the so-called "mature democracies" such as Japan, the Republic of Korea and India, where polit ical instability is temporary and controllable.

Second is the political unrest in "transitional countries" such as the former Soviet republics. Corruption is rampant, governments lack authority and coups take place at times during the transformation period in such countries because of their imperfect "democratic" system, difficulty in getting "acclimatized" to "transplanted" democracy and the powerful manipulation of politics by vested interests such as the armed forces and plutocrats.

The third type of unrest in China's neighboring countries is the result of political volatility. Such countries include Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Myanmar and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, which though labeled by Western countries as "states with problems" have a lot of geopolitical importance. The political developments in these countries are almost always beyond expectation and have a high degree of uncertainty.

Though domestic factors are the main cause of political instability in these countries, external factors, too, have a role to play. First, domestic politics in some of these countries is becoming "polarized" and have fallen into a "democracy dilemma". Some of the countries have reached a political impasse because of a confrontation between "two camps", led by two of the most powerful parties. For example, in Thailand, the "conservatives" and the "pro-Thaksin" forces have been locked in a game of political one-upmanship, resulting in chaos.

Second, domestic economic imbalance has caused serious social conflicts in some of these countries. They have intensified further because of the global financial crisis. The growing gap between the haves and have-nots and escalating social contradictions have led to fierce violent or non-violent resistance by several vulnerable groups. The political turmoil in Kyrgyzstan is one such example.