WORLD> America
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WORLD> America
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When US economy bottoms out, how will we know?
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-03-08 11:39 Stocks HOW BAD IS IT?: The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 index have lost more than half their value since the stock market peaked in October 2007. It's the worst bear market since the aftermath of the crash of 1929, when the Dow plunged 89 percent and the S&P 500 index tumbled 86 percent.
HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET? Analysts generally think Wall Street has endured the worst of the bear market. But many of those same analysts never thought the market would fall this far. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said the Dow could fall to 6,000 if the economy slows much further and unemployment rises well past the current 8.1 percent. He pegs the likelihood of that at about 30 percent. Others are more pessimistic. Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, contends the Dow might fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 500. WHEN WILL THE BOTTOM COME?: In downturns over the past 60 years, the S&P 500 has hit bottom an average of four months before a recession ended and about nine months before unemployment hit its peak. Investors will be looking for turnarounds in housing, lending and employment, plus signs that consumer spending has picked up. Then market players would be more likely to move their money from safe havens, such as gold, back into stocks. Other investors may look to obscure indicators such as the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping iron ore, grain and other materials. Rising rates can indicate demand for raw materials is increasing, which suggests a strengthening economy. But most of all, traders are waiting for a sudden spasm of selling known as capitulation. That wrings fearful investors out of the market, and as they rush out, bargain-hunters rush in. Capitulation would trigger a huge plunge in prices and frenzied trading volume. Many market experts say the bottom of the stock market could come in the second or third quarter of this year. And the recovery, whenever it comes, could be as breathtaking as the fall: Since 1932, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 46 percent in the year after stocks have hit a bottom.
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