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US: DPRK shows no sign of imminent missile launch

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-07-02 15:54

In this June 10, 2009 file photo, kindergarten pupils walk past models of a DPRK's Scud-B missile (1st R) and Republic of Korea's missiles at the Korean War Memorial Museum in Seoul. US officials say the DPRK show no sign of imminent missile launch. [Agencies]

The US doesn't see any indication the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is poised to test-launch a long-range ballistic missile capable of landing near the Hawaiian Islands, according to four government officials.

The officials, who are privy to information about the DPRK launch preparations, said there are no signs of the work necessary to launch a long-range missile during the US July 4 Independence Day celebration. The officials don't rule out the firing of short- and medium-range missiles capable of reaching Japanese waters.

A ballistic-missile launch from the DPRK in April, followed by a test nuclear blast in May, underscored Pyongyang's defiance of international calls for it to scrap its nuclear- arms effort. The US is especially concerned about the DPRK selling nuclear and missile technology to other governments.

The US assessment of DPRK's missile intentions contrasts with evidence seen earlier this year before a major launch. Commercial and intelligence satellites tracked for at least a week the DPRK's preparations to assemble and fuel a three-stage Taepodong-2 missile before its April 5 launch and failed attempt to put a satellite in orbit, the officials said.

"There were a lot of signs of an imminent launch in early April," said physicist David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists, who has co-written a new analysis of the April event.

"On the one hand, North Korea (the DPRK) announced a launch window and splashdown zones for the first two stages, but there were also a lot of activities required for a launch that we saw by satellite, including transporting the launcher to the site and erecting it on the pad, trucking fuel to the site, and fueling the stages,” he said.

Pyongpang launched a Taepodong-2 missile on July 4, 2006, which failed after about 40 seconds, and fired five short- and mid-range missiles over the Sea of Japan. The National Air and Space Intelligence Center, which tracks ballistic and cruise missile trends, said in a new report that "although both launches of the Taepodong-2 ended in failure, the April flight demonstrated a more complete performance than the July 2006 launch."

The DPRK has cautioned commercial vessels to stay away from its eastern coast through July 10, an advisory that reinforces the notion that the nation may launch short- and medium-range missiles soon with no warning, the officials said.

Related readings:  DPRK ship under US scrutiny 'heads back'  Source: Suspected DPRK ship changes course  Five-party dialogue 'possible' without DPRK  US envoy leaves for China for DPRK talks  DPRK vows nuke attack if provoked by US

Japan's top-selling newspaper, the Yomiuri, last month cited a Japanese military analysis as saying that Pyongyang might fire a long-range missile toward Hawaii early this month.

There is no indication that the DPRK is preparing for such an action, the officials said.

The Yomiuri report came the same day as congressional testimony by the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General James Cartwright, saying it was estimated that the DPRK would need as long as five years to develop a credible Taepodong-2 missile capable of threatening the continental US.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, acting on what he described as "some concerns if they were to launch a missile in the direction of Hawaii" ordered the deployment of Army Thaad missile interceptors and a precision-tracking sea-based radar to the islands to improve their defenses.

One of the officials described Gates's move to beef up Hawaii's missile defenses as being prompted by concern over potential longer-term capabilities of the DPRK.