Two years passed since China introduced three-child policy on July 20, 2021 under which all couples are allowed to have three children. But it seems the policy can hardly reverse the declining fertility rate.

Since the 1970s, when the family planning policy was implemented, China's total fertility rate has been declining. After the total fertility rate dipped below the replacement rate in 1992, the rapid growth of the population was checked. Replacement rate is the total fertility rate at which enough babies are born to sustain the population level. According to the United Nations Population Division, a total fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman is considered replacement-level fertility.

Since the total fertility rate had fallen much below the replacement level, the authorities eased the family planning policy in 2015, allowing all couples to have two children. And in 2021, the policy was further relaxed to allow all couples to have three children, in order to sustain the population level and counterbalance the effects of a rapidly rising aging population.

However, after a brief rebound in 2017, the total fertility rate has been declining steadily. In 2018, the total fertility rate was 1.58, dropping further to 1.30 in 2020 and to below 1.07 in 2022. Concurrently, the annual number of births, which had peaked at 18.19 million between 2011 and 2017, fell to 15.23 million in 2018, 12.02 million in 2020, and 9.56 million in 2022.

The expected positive effects of the “three-child policy” have not materialized, and the rapid decline in the total fertility rate has led to negative population growth much earlier than anticipated. These trends are the effects of the demographic changes due to continued socioeconomic development.

Although the ideal, widely accepted replacement rate is 2.1, in practice, the National Population Development Plan (2016-30) set a moderate fertility rate target for China for the years 2020 through 2030. And the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) stressed the importance of the moderate fertility rate. Yet there is a significant gap between reality and these fertility rate targets.

By all accounts, the trend of low fertility rate doesn't seem likely to change in the near future. First, the population of women of childbearing age has been declining — the number of women aged 15 to 49, the natural childbearing age group, was 330 million in 2020. But it is projected to decline to 220 million by 2050, with the number of women in peak childbearing age (between 20 and 34) decreasing from 140 million to 90 million.

Second, couples, especially women, are reluctant to have more than one child, with some deciding to not have any children at all. As a result, the total fertility rate has been continuously declining — from 2.13 in the 1980s and 1.90 in the 1990s to 1.67 in the 2000s and 1.76 in 2017. It further fell to 1.67 in 2021.

Cohort studies show that younger childbearing age cohorts have lower fertility desire. The average intended fertility rate for the post-1980s generation surveyed was 1.96, while for the current main childbearing age cohorts, that is, for those born in the 1990s and 2000s, it was 1.54 and 1.48, respectively.

Third, there is a decline in the actual fertility rate, which tends to be lower than the intended fertility rate. Although the intended fertility rate among childbearing age women was 1.67 in 2021, the actual fertility rate was only 1.30 in 2020. Additionally, people today are getting married and having children at a later age, with the average age of first marriage for women increasing from 24 in 2010 to 28 in 2020. As the age at marriage increases, the window for childbearing decreases.

Besides, economic and social development is the most important factor that determines the total fertility rate. The relationship between population and economic development, and the experiences of developed countries show that as development and income levels increase and living standards improve, people are less inclined to have more children. The level of socioeconomic development invariably influences the change in total fertility rates. As such, low total fertility rates will likely be a normal phenomenon in China in the coming decades.

To increase the total fertility rate, the authorities should not only promote the “three-child” policy but also encourage couples to have their first child at an earlier age than what seems to have become the norm, because the key factor contributing to the decline of total fertility rates is the tendency of young couples to have the first child at a later age.

The establishment of a supportive policy system to encourage couples to have two-three children has become a social public policy requirement. Also, the authorities should strive to reduce the financial burden of childbirth, child-rearing and children's education on couples, improve people's well-being, and strengthen the social governance system.

It is also important to create a fertility-friendly environment, help remove couples' anxieties over child-rearing, change youths' attitude toward marriage and having children, and establish a unified system of fertility-related social and economic policies.

Efforts should also be made to strengthen service management, meet the diverse needs of different groups, especially the childbearing age population to boost the total fertility rate and sustain a healthy population level.

The author is a professor of demography at the Nankai University in Tianjin.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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