More than 70 countries and regions will hold elections in 2024. The presidential elections in Russia and the United States being among the most important in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Ukrainian constitution allows its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to continue as "wartime president". The Russia-Ukraine conflict is thus unlikely to see much change.

Clearly, Ukraine's ambitious counteroffensive has not achieved expected results. On the other hand, Russia and its people are accustomed to Western sanctions. Russia has endured the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies, and its economy is actually slated to see more than 2 percent growth in 2023, proving wrong those speculators who had forecast negative growth for the Russian economy.

From a broader perspective, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is actually a confrontation between Russia and the West after the end of the Cold War, and its geopolitical significance and impact are profound. From the perspective of the US and Europe, the conflict is a proxy war, and Ukraine cannot win without Western military and economic assistance. Therefore, the outcome of the 2024 US election will greatly influence the final course of this conflict.

If Joe Biden is reelected president, the US is expected to continue its policy of offering comprehensive support to Ukraine, given that it is well aware that Ukraine cannot survive without military and economic aid from the US. If former US president Donald Trump can take part in the election and wins, he is very likely to abandon Biden's policy of one-sided support for Ukraine.

Trump has always criticized Biden's policy toward Ukraine and advocated negotiations for peace, claiming that if he comes to power, "the Russia-Ukraine war can be easily ended in just one day".

In short, the US presidential election serves as the greatest variable in the course of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.