URUMQI -- A recent study has revealed how decades of land-use change have significantly shaped ecological conditions in the Tarim River Basin, China's largest inland river basin.

The study, published in the journal Geography and Sustainability, was led by researchers from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Using multi-source remote sensing, meteorological, and socio-economic data, the researchers analyzed land-use and land-cover transitions over the past 30 years. They also projected future land patterns and ecological outcomes.

The researchers found significant land-use changes between 1992 and 2020. Cropland expanded by approximately 18,851 square kilometers, while grassland and woodland increased by about 10,235 and 1,015 square kilometers, respectively. Conversely, barren land decreased by around 20,597 square kilometers. The ecological quality index improved from 0.1196 to 0.1248, particularly in the upper and middle reaches of the river basin.

In addition, the researchers created four land development scenarios -- Natural Development, Cropland Conservation, Ecological Protection, and Urban Expansion -- to simulate future trends. Under the Ecological Protection scenario, by 2050, grasslands, forests and water bodies are projected to increase by about 20,375, 2,635 and 586 square kilometers, respectively, leading to notable ecological improvements.

According to the study, across all scenarios, the primary driver of ecological improvement is the conversion of barren land into grassland and woodland, which enhances ecosystem services such as water conservation, soil retention and biodiversity preservation.

This study provides valuable insights and a scientific foundation for promoting sustainable socio-economic development and ecological conservation in the region, according to the researchers.