Surging domestic demand is expected to curb China's coffee exports this year while driving a sharp increase in imports, said traders and analysts.

As Southwest China's Yunnan province, the country's main coffee-producing region, has entered its peak harvest season — from December to February — a price inversion has emerged in the bulk coffee market. Domestic procurement prices now exceed export prices, prompting many businesses to recalibrate their strategies, they said.

Ma Mingyi, president of Xichen Coffee (Pu'er) Co, a coffee trader based in Pu'er, Yunnan, said that in previous years, most of the company's beans were exported during this period. This year, however, domestic buyers have visited Yunnan earlier and are offering more competitive prices.

"Under current market conditions, domestic clients are willing to pay 55 yuan ($8) to 60 yuan per kilogram for the same batch of commercial-grade beans," said Ma. "Based on prevailing exchange rates and futures prices, export prices would be only slightly above 50 yuan per kg. Calculated per metric ton, the price gap amounts to several thousand yuan."

A similar view was shared by Gao Jie, general manager of Baoshan Gaolaozhuang Agricultural and Sideline Products Development Co, another coffee trader in Baoshan, Yunnan.

"We used to rely primarily on exports, but China's domestic coffee market has been booming this year," said Gao, adding that as a result, her company has shifted its focus, directing more than 70 percent of its high-quality output to the domestic market.

She added that sales of the company's organic beans and specialty roasted coffee have risen markedly year-on-year across both online and brick-and-mortar channels.

Liang Jianyu, a coffee trader in Foshan, South China's Guangdong province, said that the recognition of Yunnan coffee beans has been steadily increasing across the value chain, from consumers and cafe operators to producers, with procurement volumes rising accordingly.

"We purchase more than 1 ton of beans from Yunnan each year. The volume has been increasing by around 200 to 300 kg annually," said Liang.

China's coffee consumption has evolved beyond a focus on flavor to encompass ambience, creativity and emotional value. The "coffee-plus" model continues to innovate by incorporating elements such as fruit, pets and intangible cultural heritage.

The diversification of business formats and robust demand are attracting a growing number of new entrants into the sector.

For instance, more than 1,300 coffee shops were registered with the market regulator two years ago in Foshan's Shunde district, a figure that had since risen to over 1,800 by the end of January, data from the local coffee industry association show.

China's rapidly expanding consumer market is generating opportunities for Yunnan coffee while also benefiting major coffee-producing regions around the world.

China's coffee import value surpassed 12 billion yuan in 2025, surging 73 percent year-on-year, statistics from the General Administration of Customs show.

Li Yuliang, president of Foshan Nanming Lihuo Food Co, said coffee demand across many Chinese provinces is set to rise this year, adding that the company's coffee roasting plant output jumped 50 percent year-on-year last year, boosting demand for imported green coffee beans.

China has also continued to diversify its sources of coffee imports. In the past two years, green coffee beans from countries including Honduras, Papua New Guinea and Burundi have been granted access to the Chinese market, further enriching options for domestic consumers, according to Nanjing Customs.

At present, green coffee beans are permitted to be imported into China from 44 countries and regions, with major sources including Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.