Lack of foresight usually means there will be trouble ahead.

This is certainly true when it comes to the strategy for water use in North China, where the excessive exploitation of ground water has made this region one of the world's largest areas with land subsidence.

The land that has subsided by more than 20 centimeters involves an area of more than 60,000 square kilometers, accounting for half of the region. Land has sunk by as much as 2.4 meters in the past four decades in the city of Cangzhou, Hebei province. The ground floor of a local hospital building in the city has now become a basement.

More than 2 million deepwater wells are pumping ground water in this plain everyday and statistics show that the deficit of ground water is about 120 billion cubic meters.

The consequences of continuous land subsidence are far beyond the lack of water for urban or agricultural use. If it is not curbed the excessive use of ground water will result in a series of ecological disasters, such as the drying up of lakes, the loss of arable land and the invasion of seawater.

Further subsidence could pose a threat to the safety of highways, elevated railway lines and buildings in cities in the near future.

Will the project now under way to divert water from the south ease this thirst? It seems unlikely. Even if it will considerably ease the water shortage, it will not stop the region using its ground water given its rapid urbanization.

It is obvious that the central government needs to devise a long-term strategy for urbanization in this region by taking into account the increasingly severe shortage of water and excessive use of ground water. So too must the local governments of various cities in the region.

It is high time that the central government considered whether this region can continue with its current mode of urbanization given the lack of water.

The rampant development of golf courses, the digging of canals and other water-consuming facilities suggest that water conservation is not yet a factor in most urban planning.

For the time being, it is essential that local governments have a sense of urgency when it comes to the use of water. Local leaders must be made to realize that a lack of water could undermine the sustainability of the current urbanization and they need to introduce measures to save water and facilitate the use of recycled water.

It will prove to be costly, risky and unrealistic for the region to solely rely on water diverted from the south for development.

Tianjin's action to desalinate an increasing amount of seawater to make up for the deficiency of water supply for civil and industrial use may be an alternative, which can be included in the strategy for the whole region.

(China Daily 10/29/2011 page5)